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Chester Tips and Trends For ITV Horse Racing On Wednesday

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chester races

Another busy midweek on the horse racing front with the three-day Chester May Meeting getting going on Wednesday 4th May. The ITV4 horse racing cameras are also heading to Chester racecourse to take in the first five races on day one. Andy Newton has the main races covered with key trends and tips.

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Chester Horse Racing Trends and Tips (ITV/RacingTV) – Wednesday 4th May 2022

1.30 – Icm Stellar Group Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f16y ITV4

19/19 – Had a recent run that season
18/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/19 – Had won over 5f before
15/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
13/19 – Won last time out
11/19 – Horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
11/19 – Came from stalls 1-3
7/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Came from stall 1 (but just 1 in the last 14 years)
2/19 – Trained by David Evans

BEST BET: Over this flying 5f, being drawn low is key with 11 of the last 19 winners coming from stalls 1-3. With that in mind, Zephina (1), STAR OF LADY M (2) @ 5/4 with Boylesports and Dunnington Lad (3) look the ones to focus on.

Of that bunch, the David O’Meara-trained Star Of Lady M is the call after winning both her previous starts in decent fashion – the last being an easy 3 1/2 length success at Ripon. Draw 2 looks ideal to get a good early berth and regular jockey Danny Tudhope remains in the saddle.

Of the rest, Ocean Cloud and Absolutleyflawless both come here unbeaten and are others to note, while with the David Evans yard having a fair record in this race – his ZEPHINA (e/w) @ 12/1 with Boylesports, from draw 1, looks the play for those looking at the bigger-priced runners.

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2.05 – tote.co.uk Free Chester Placepot Every Day Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 5f ITV4

19/19 – Winners from stall 7 or lower
18/19 – Had won before over this trip
15/19 – Winners came from stalls 1-4
14/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
13/19 – Had run before that season
11/19 – Favourites that finished in the top three
7/19 – Returned a double-figure price
7/19 – Had won before at Chester
4/19 – Won their last race
4/19 – Winning favourites
The last 13 winners returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting

BEST BET: Another race over the minimum 5f trip here, so again being drawn low is key – 15 of the last 19 winners have come from stalls 1-4.

Nymphadora (1), Live In The Dream (2), Vintage Clarets (3) and Navello (4) are the ones drawn low.

Of that quartet, it’s hard to ignore the Adam West runner – LIVE IN THE DREAM @ 11/8 with Boylesports – who scooted up by an impressive 3 3/4 lengths at Sandown last month. He made all that day so clearly has a lot of speed and despite being up 8lbs here, has a cracking draw in 2 and top jockey Ryan Moore has been booked to ride.

The danger can come from NAVELLO (e/w) @ 9/2 with Boylesports, who was a winner at this meeting 12 months (won today’s opening contest).

2.40 – Weatherbys Bloodstock Pro Cheshire Oaks (for the Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f79y ITV4

17/19 – Had not won over this trip (or further) before
16/19 – Had a previous run that season
16/19 – Favourites that finished in the top three
13/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
11/19 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/19 – Won their last race
6/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/19 – Winners from stall 4
4/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – Trained by John Gosden
None of the last 19 winners had run at Chester before

BEST BET: A good race over the years for trainer Aidan O’Brien – he runs Thoughts Of June. However, his sone Joseph could have the answer here with recent Leopardstown winner – ABOVE THE CURVE @ 6/4 with Boylesports.

This 3 year-old filly has an Epsom Oaks entry next month and her win last time was probably even better having raced green and also hanging a bit left. That won’t be an issue on this tight left-handed track and with only two career runs is the sort that can improve a fair bit more.

Of the rest, the John Gosden yard have a fair record in the race and run Morning Poem with Frankie Dettori riding, while Moon De Vega and Night Battle have shown a good level of form in their early races.

But, the well-bred HELLO JUMEIRAH @ 7/1 with Boylesports is the only proven distance winner in the field and was a good winner on debut at Kempton for trainer William Haggas. She, therefore, will be fine over the distance and holds a G2 Ribblesdale Stakes entry at Royal Ascot.

logo boylesportsBoylesports Special Offer – Money back if your horse is 2nd to the SP Fav (max refund £20). Applies to singles and win part of e/w bets in horses races in UK/Ire with 5 or more runners in. (Ts&C’s apply)

 

3.10 – Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4 1/4f ITV4

18/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Finished third or better last time out
16/19 – Had a previous run that season
14/19 – Went onto finish 8th or better in the Epsom Derby
13/19 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd in this race
10/19 – Didn’t win their previous race
9/19 – Came from stalls 1 or 2
9/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 of last 8 winners)
8/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (5 of last 8 winners)
Just one winner in the last 19 years went onto win the Epsom Derby winner (2013 – Ruler Of The World)

BEST BET: With six of the last 8 winners of the Chester Vase to his name then you can never ignore the Aidan O’Brien runners – he’s got another fair chance in Changingoftheguard.

But it’s hard to get away from Godolphin’s NEW LONDON @ 1/3 with Boylesports here, who has won both starts in good fashion. The last of those came at Newmarket in April over 1m2f and is already one of the main fancies for the Epsom Derby next month @ 5/1 with Boylesports.

3.40 – Deepbridge Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 6f ITV4

9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Winners from stalls 4 or higher
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
6/10 – Rated between 78-80
6/10 – Had won over 6f before
5/10 – Had run at the track before
1/10 – Winning favourites
1/10 – Winners from stall 1

BEST BET: Another of the sprint races here (6f), but with 8 of the last 10 winners drawn 4 or higher you don’t always need a really low draw here.

We’ve also seen 8 of the last 10 winners carry 9-2 or less in weight, so the top five on the card – Ever Given, Tolstoy, Golden Warrior, Pocket The Profit and Auditor will have this stat to overcome too.

So, the two to chance here are SELBY’S PRIDE (e/w) @ 14/1 with Boylesports and BUCKSHAW VILLAGE (e/w) @ 11/2 with Boylesports . The former has been third the last twice at Thirsk and Ripon, but has run on well those times over 5f to suggest the step up to 6f is a great move.

Buckshaw Village represents the Richard Fahey camp that won this race in 2018 and gets in with a featherweight of just 8-4. He also ran on well at the finish (5th) to be only beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the same race Selby’s Pride was third in. Down a pound and a good draw in 4 help further.

 

logo boylesportsBoylesports Special Offer – Money back if your horse is 2nd to the SP Fav (max refund £20). Applies to singles and win part of e/w bets in horses races in UK/Ire with 5 or more runners in. (Ts&C’s apply)

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Other Horse Racing Tips

Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips
Today’s Placepot Tips
Today’s Horse Racing Tips
Today’s Each-way Horse Racing Tip
Today’s Lucky 15 Horse Racing Tips
Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis
Today’s Horse Racing NAP
Chester May Meeting – Day One Tips
Tom Segal (Pricewise) Chester Tips
Templegate (Sun newspaper) Chester Tips
Tony Calvin (Betfair) Chester Tips

Chester May Meeting Race Time – Wednesday 4th May 2022

  • 1:30 – ICM Stellar Sports Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) (IRE Incentive Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV4
  • 2:05 – tote.co.uk Free Chester Placepot Every Day Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 5f ITV4
  • 2:40 – Weatherbys Bloodstock Pro Cheshire Oaks (For Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 (3yo) 1m3½f ITV4
  • 3:10 – Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4½f ITV4
  • 3:40 – Deepbridge Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 6f ITV4
  • 4:15 – Edinburgh Gin Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Cl3 (3yo) 1m2½f SKY
  • 4:45 – Stephen Wade Handicap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-85) 7f SKY

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