Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew has uncovered some interesting stats-based selections for Thursday’s action.
Andrew found a 20-1 winner earlier this week and has five selections at Lingfield, Chelmsford and Wolverhampton on Thursday November 25th:
LINGFIELD 1.45
ROCK OF FAME (systems – Venetia Williams break returners over hurdles & Venetia Williams Flat to low-grade hurdles switch)
The Venetia Williams-trained ROCK OF FAME could be worth chancing on her hurdles debut despite the 449-day absence. Since the start of 2018, her handler is showing a profit of £58.50 with hurdlers returning from a break of 150 days or longer and, this century, those coming off the Flat to run in a Class 4 or lower hurdle, regardless of when they last ran, have a 15 from 69 record for a profit of £31.08. ROCK OF FAME was a good second at Bath on her stable debut and has a history of running well when fresh.
LINGFIELD 2.17
STAR ACADEMY (system – Venetia Williams, young handicap chasers in November)
Since the start of this century, Venetia Williams has won with 87 of her 390 young handicap chasers (aged eight or less) in the month of November (22.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £192.01 to a £1 level stake at SP. Seven-year-old STAR ACADEMY was steadily progressive over hurdles last season, chasing home the progressive Dobryn (now rated 133) at Plumpton on his final outing. The third, fourth and fifth have all won since and a handicap mark of 119 could be on the generous side.
CHELMSFORD 4.20
SIXTH STREET (system – Toronado juveniles on the AW, not on racecourse debut)
Progeny of Toronado have a good record on the all-weather, especially the two-year-olds who already had the benefit of previous experience. This system has produced 20 winners from 87 runners for a profit of £50.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. SIXTH STREET, close up in a big field at Wolverhampton on her racecourse debut in September, didn’t build on that at Bath next time but the return to synthetics can she her in a better light.
CHELMSFORD 4.50
ROBBIE ROGER (system – Roger Fell, second run for the yard, AW only)
Roger Fell hasn’t got the greatest record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, but they do well second time out if racing on the all-weather. Six of the 45 qualifiers have won for a profit of £27.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. ROBBIE ROGER didn’t see out the 7f trip at Wolverhampton on his recent stable debut and looks interesting now handicapping back at 6f.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.35
AVARICE (system – younger progeny of Zoffany on Tapeta, 1m1f+)
This 1m4f handicap looks set to be run at an honest gallop thanks to the presence of Mr Carbonator, The Sedberghian and Victory Star and the race could be set up for a closer. Step forward AVARICE, who looks very interesting now running in a Class 6 handicap on the all-weather for the first time. He could never get involved off a steady pace when 33-1 at Lingfield last time and has been generously dropped another 3lb to a mark of 64. The step up in trip should suit and had we bet all younger progeny of Zoffany (aged two to four) on Tapeta over 1m1f or further we’d have won 20 of our 113 bets (17.7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £88.83 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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