On another packed Saturday of sport, Andrew Mount’s horse racing betting tips look at the best of the action. The journalist and broadcaster has spent over 20 years in the industry helping punters in their eternal quest to beat the bookies. A regular contributor to the trade paper, the Racing Post, plus the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, Andrew is also live on air as a pundit for William Hill Radio. Hear his analysis on Racing Post TV too. A stats based approach is his modus operandi, so that creates neat betting systems to follow.
Andrew has selections from major meetings today including Newmarket, York and Chepstow but also the All-Weather action at Chelmsford. Get the lowdown on his latest fancies here, so you can see why they appeal:
Newmarket
1.45 – BERKSHIRE REBEL (system – Andrew Balding third-time out 2yos, turf only)
Andrew Balding’s juveniles usually need a run or two before peaking and his juvenile turf runners who are having their third career outing often make good bets. Since the beginning of 2016, the qualifiers have landed 39 of their 136 starts (28.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £72.88 to the usual £1 stake. BERKSHIRE REBEL could never get involved off the steady pace when third of four at Epsom last time and could surprise in this Group 3 contest.
2.20 – IMPERIAL FIGHTER (system – Andrew Balding third-time out 2yos, turf only)
IMPERIAL FIGHTER qualifies on the same angle as Berkshire Rebel (see above) and looks the obvious each-way alternative to the odds-on favourite Coroebus.
Back Imperial Fighter each way at SBK
York
3.50 – SPERANZOSO (system – Ed Walker second-time out 2yos)
Ed Walker-trained newcomers don’t have the greatest record but those who show promise on their debuts often score at the second time of asking. Had we simply backed those who were beaten by five lengths or less on their debut we’d have won 18 of our 56 bets (32.1%) and made a profit of £23.18 to £1. SPERANZOSO is the latest qualifier.
Chepstow
4.40 – TIMEFORATUNE (system – Ffos Las bumper winners next time out)
Ffos Las form tends to be underrated, but the bumpers in particular are well contested and the winners often make good bets to follow up. Of the 126 qualifiers, 41 proved successful on their next outing (32.5% strike-rate) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £37.93 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Those who switched to Chepstow next time were five from eight (+£15.25). TIMEFORATUNE is a very short price but he’s likely to take some beating. Those looking for an each-way alternative or a selection for the straight forecast may want to consider GREAT HEART’JAC, who caught the eye under a patient ride at pace-favouring Kempton in February.
Chelmsford
4.55 – COME ON LINDA (system – sire Alhebayeb on Polytrack)
COME ON LINDA is a 17-race maiden but she’s only raced on turf and Polytrack, and her sire’s progeny seem most effective on that artificial surface (this system was discussed in detail yesterday). The drop back to 7f could suit and she’s worth chancing to overcome her wide draw.
8.30 – THE WHIPMASTER (system – ‘Racing League flops’ dropping in class)
THE WHIPMASTER could never get involved off a steady pace in a valuable Racing League handicap at Newcastle last time, finishing eighth of the ten runners on his first attempt at the 1m 4f trip. He’ll be happier back at 1m 2f on Polytrack and, with 15 runners, he should encounter the required strong pace.
The Whipmaster’s three runs in handicaps of 12 or more runners have returned form figures of 1st, 1st and 3rd of 12 (11-1). Horses who flop in those valuable Class 3 Racing League handicaps are profitable to back when dropped in grade next time and he looks a good each-way play in this Class 5 contest.
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