If you fancy a flutter on the World Cup finals tournament this summer, but are not quite sure which market to have a punt on at the moment, then may I suggest you have a look at the leading goal scorer market?
While you may think that taking a punt on the outright winner is a good idea, the goalscorer market can offer punters a great chance to win some money. However there are ways and means to go about doing this to ensure that your bet has the best chance possible of winning you the most amount of money.
Firstly, while it may be tempting to bum rush the Bookmakers now, I’d avoid doing so just at the moment. Keep an eye on the odds and the form of the players over the next few months and most of all wait until all 32 finalists have been confirmed. Once they are qualified, you will know which squads will be in South Africa. After all there’s no point putting a bet on Thierry Henry or Robbie Keane to be leading scorer if their team doesn’t qualify for the finals.
Once the finalists are decided and the draw for the groups has been made in December, then is a good time to look at each group and look for favourable match ups for strikers. This will be strong teams against much weaker sides when teams can rack up the goals. Work out who you think will progress from each group from these match ups so you have an idea of who will at least get to the second phase. It is guesswork, but educated guesswork can prove fruitful.
Lastly don’t fall for the hype. I’ve seen many goal scorer polls and articles that list Kaka or Lionel Messi as possible winners. While they are great players, they are not likely to score the volume of goals needed due to the position they play. The same can be said for Cristiano Ronaldo for Portugal, Ribery for France etc.
Almost all World Cup leading goal scorers are out and out strikers and that seems unlikely to change. Looking at the statistics from FIFA, the World Cup top scorers, have not been the greatest players, just killers in the penalty box. Like Lineker in 1986, with a few exceptions of course. They have usually represented teams that have reached the quarter finals.
So you’d like some tips would you for players to watch? Certainly there are the Spanish duo of Fernando Torres and David Villa who will both be short odds. If France get there then expect Henry to also be short odds. Rooney for England is another who will be in the hunt and expect Didier Drogba of the Ivory Coast to be a popular bet. Those guys offer no value at all, the big crowd will bet on them and the odds offered will be way too bad compared to the chance.
My tips however are to keep an eye on Luis Fabiano of Brazil, the Sevilla striker is in exceptional form at international level at the moment. The other is Miroslav Klose of Germany, who has an outstanding goalscoring record in World Cup Finals as well as for Germany. He is over the hill but can still find the net, and Germany always get far in World Cup. For an outside bet, and it is an outside bet, take Sergio Aguero of Argentina. He still has a lot to prove when he is playing for the national team.
Watch their form over the coming weeks and months and once that draw is made, check the prices for the players and it may well be worth taking a gamble on the early prices and then hope that your star man doesn’t get injured.
Written by Jens Olsson of TheDailyPunt.com.