Professional horse racing tipster Andrew Mount takes a good look at Thursday’s Spreadex markets to find the best value spread betting and fixed odds opportunities.
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Andrew made a good profit with his buy of DANNY TUDHOPE on Wednesday (market made up at 40) and he has three recommended bets/trades at Aintree on Thursday, April 7th. Follow his tips on horse racing betting sites throughout the year.
AINTREE 1.45
The Paul Nicholls-trained PIC D’ORHY is prominent in the betting (100-30 with Spreadex) for the Grade 1 Manifesto Chase that gets proceedings underway at Aintree on Thursday but the seven-year-old could prove vulnerable. He scored in game fashion from MILLERS BANK (reopposes here) at Kempton last time but has a poor record immediately following a win – form figures for his current yard of 2F3 (0-3) – and his trainer’s record in this race (since it was established 2009) reads F333255245543 (0-13). Sell at 17 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 race market. Fixed odds punters might want to side with WAR LORD, who was second best of the British-trained runners when fourth to the brilliant Edwardstone in the Arkle, getting closer to his old rival than when runner-up in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December. The step up to 2m4f for the first time since he was switched to fences is likely to bring about improvement and the Colin Tizzard yard is in great form.
Recommendation: Oppose PIC D’ORHY in Aintree 1.45
AINTREE SPOTLIGHT VERDICT
Spotlight in the Racing Post also favour WAR LORD in the Aintree opener and I agree with their verdicts in a number of the other races. They’ve taken on PIED PIPER, trained by out-of-form Gordon Elliott, with Fred Winter winner BRAZIL in the 2.20 and have sided with Gold Cup third PROTEKTORAT over ageing pair CLAN DES OBEAUX and KEMBOY in the Grade 1 Betway Bowl Chase (2.55). I’m hopeful of getting both EPATANTE and ZANAHIYR in the Aintree Hurdle (3.30), though I agree with Steve Boow’s assessment that the last-named looks the stronger stayer over today’s 2m4f trip. Jonathan Neesom makes a good case for PORLOCK BAY in the Foxhunters’ (4.05), while my old boss Emily Weber has gone for BEFORE MIDNIGHT, on my shortlist too, for the 4.40. With 25 points awarded for a winner, 10 for a second and 5 for third place, I’m expecting my former colleagues to cover the spread of 48-51.
Recommendation: Buy SPOTLIGHT VERDICT at Aintree
AINTREE 4.40
Since 2010, horses who ran in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham festival have a poor record when also taking part in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree, with just one of the 55 successful. The expected number of winners based on their prices was four. FRERO BANBOU, SKY PIRATE, ELIXIR DU NUTZ and DANCING ON MY OWN could all prove vulnerable as a result. I have a few on my shortlist for this competitive two-mile contest and the most interesting one is the Evan Williams-trained THE LAST DAY. Since his racecourse debut, he has done remarkably well when running fresh (after a break of at least six weeks), recording form figures of 19141F1156F (5-11) for a profit of £20.32 to a £1 level stake at SP. That profit was almost given a huge boost when he ran at Haydock on his reappearance this term but the 25-1 shot fell at the last fence when two lengths in front. He’s a course and distance winner and could surprise on his return from a 75-day break if the ground doesn’t dry out too much. Buy at 8 in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 race market or back at 11-1 in the fixed odds betting.
Recommendation: Back THE LAST DAY in Aintree 4.40
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