Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to highlight potentially value bets and shares his thoughts for Monday’s racing below.
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There’s some cracking all-weather action on Monday January 24th and Andrew begins the new week with four selections at Kempton and Wolverhampton. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites:
KEMPTON 2.45
SHOOT TO KILL (system – Robyn Brisland, all-weather, very recent run)
Robyn Brisland has done fantastically well with SHOOT TO KILL since picking him up from the George Scott yard, winning a 7f handicap at Lingfield (7-2), and 8.6f handicap at Wolverhampton (11-2) and, last Saturday, a 1m Lingfield handicap at 14-1. He actually qualified as a bet for me last time but I didn’t get involved as I was worried about his stall 1 draw on the inside rail – not the place to be at Lingfield of late. That was a run worthy of a serious upgrade and he can follow up under a 5lb penalty in this 7f contest. His trainer does well on the all-weather with horses returning to the track very quickly (seven days or sooner since their latest outing), scoring with 19 of the 68 qualifiers (28% strike-rate) for a profit of £45.55 to a £1 level stake at SP.
KEMPTON 3.15
LORD VADER (system – sire ULYSSES)
My current angle with the sire Ulysses is simple – just back them all. This will no doubt change once we have a bigger sample size to analyse but the early signs are hugely encouraging. Backing all the sire’s progeny would have found 17 winners from 107 bets for a profit of £30.48 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. ULYSSES himself, trainer by Sir Michael Stoute, improved with age, finishing sixth in his sole start as a juvenile, scoring in Group 3 company as a three-year-old and then taking off in the summer of his four-year-old campaign with a pair of Group 1 wins. He had his first crop of two-year-olds in 2021 and plenty of those are likely to improve this year. LORD VADER wasn’t disgraced at Lingfield on his recent debut, running seventh of 11 at 150-1 after getting upset in the stalls and blowing the start, It’s doubtful that we’ll see the best of him until he goes handicapping but he’s a huge price (66-1 at the time of writing) and might be worth chancing to modest each-way stakes.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00
DASHING TO YOU (system – sire Olympic Glory on Tapeta or Fibresand)
Progeny of the sire have a solid record on non-Polytrack all-weather surfaces, landing 15 of their 88 starts for a profit of £128.99 to a £1 level stake at SP. Both of DASHING TO YOU’s all-weather runs have taken place on Chelmsford’s Polytrack and, while he’s not been disgraced (third and fourth), there could be plenty more to come now that he switches to Tapeta for the first time. AL GAIYA also qualifies on this angle in the 8.00 though I prefer another in that race (see below).
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WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00
SCARBOROUGH CASTLE (system – sire Fastnet Rock on Tapeta)
SCARBOROUGH CASTLE took his handicap record on Tapeta to 111 (3-3) when getting up close home over 1m4f at Southwell last month, relishing every yard of the trip. He didn’t have the easiest draw that day and can follow up. Progeny of the sire Fastnet Rock have a good record on this surface, winning 20 of their 103 starts at Wolverhampton (+£35.40 to a £1 level stake at SP), 29 of their 163 starts at Newcastle (+£24.73) and one of the five at Southwell (-£1.00).
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