The NAP of the Day for Saturday, 16 October is Fair Star running over hurdles for the first time at Market Rasen. He runs in the the extended 2m maiden hurdle on the Prelude Handicap Chase card (1:35) and appeals to SportsLens experts at odds of 9/4.
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Trained by Brian Ellison, who loves sending runners to the Lincolnshire track, Fair Star has some smart bumper form including a course win to his name. He has also done well on the All-Weather, scoring twice and placing on three other occasions. The five-year-old son of Sea The Stars thus looks a value Bet of the Day today. Find out more about why he is the NAP of the Day at 9/4 for 16 October below:
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Why will Fair Star win?
The form of his junior bumper win at the course isn’t too shabby. The runner-up has since twice scored over hurdles, while the fourth and eighth horses home secured subsequent victories on the level. Fair Star then ran a 4 1/4 lengths fifth at Listed level at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day 2020. That is the eye-catching piece of National Hunt form. The runner-up, Ocean Wind, scored in the grade next time out and finished sixth in the Champion Bumper at the Festival.
That one also won last season’s Cesarewitch Trial in style and was runner-up in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes this spring. Ocean Wind has an official rating off 112 on the Flat. The third home from Cheltenham, Genola, has won graded National Hunt Flat races in her native France. Grand Roi, back in fourth, landed the Grade 2 four-year-old hurdle at the Limerick Christmas Festival last winter, beating recent Punchestown winner Wolf Prince.
Even the sixth, seventh and tenth horses home have won hurdle races. This form reads really well in relation to the class 4 maiden hurdle Fair Star runs in now. He has earned a mark of 89 on the Flat and twice ran on into the frame over 1m 4f at Wolverhampton. Dropping back in trip when switching back to turf at Newbury last time out didn’t suit.
Sedgefield is the only track at which Ellison has trained more winners over jumps than Market Rasen. The stamina laden pedigree of main market rival At Poets Cross may mean the trip is too sharp for Nicky Henderson’s runner. Side with Fair Star instead and a £25 wager returns £81.25. Should he lose his hurdles debut, then QuinnBet returns the stake as a free bet.
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