College Football Playoffs: Notre Dame is favored in national semi-final vs. Penn State

Only four teams are left standing after an incredible 2024 college football season. This was the first year of the expanded 12-team playoffs. That meant more meaningful games late in the season that wouldn’t have mattered in the past. On Thursday night, the first of the two national semi-finals will be played. 

The #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will face the #6 Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl. This is going to be a physical football game between Notre Dame and Penn State. Both teams have elite defenses and can run the football with incredible success. Notre Dame is favored (-1) to win the game via odds from BetOnline. They took down Georgia in the quarter-finals and Penn State has played two lighter opponents to start the postseason. Hence the reason why the Fighting Irish are favored slightly even when the Nittany Lions are the higher seed overall. Tune into the game tonight at 7:30 p.m. EST on ESPN.

Note: Odds via BetOnline. Accurate as of Jan. 9, 2025

Will Notre Dame or Penn State advance to the National Championship?

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— Capital One Orange Bowl (@OrangeBowl) January 9, 2025

#7 Notre Dame (-1) (-121 ML)

In their second game of the 2024 season, Notre Dame lost 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois. Since then, the Fighting Irish have won 12 straight and are in the national semi-final on Thursday night. Marcus Freeman and his team have faced Indiana and Georgia to get to this point. Notre Dame was one of four teams to host a home playoff game for the first time and they took full advantage of that opportunity. Despite the score being 27-17 vs. Indiana, the game was never particularly close. The Hoosiers scored garbage time points to make the score look closer than it was.

Notre Dame’s quarter-final matchup was vs. Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs. The Irish won that game 23-10 and they took down one of the top programs in the country. Georgia’s Gunnar Stockton made his first collegiate start against Notre Dame and struggled. On Thursday night, Notre Dame will be facing off vs. Penn State. Both teams have similar strengths. We know the Irish and Nittany Lions have strong defenses. Much like their game vs. Georgia, tonight’s matchup will be about what team makes the least amount of mistakes. Notre Dame made zero vs. the Bulldogs and that’s why they are in the Orange Bowl.

#6 Penn State (+1) (+101 ML)

The 12-team college football playoff for teams like Penn State and Notre Dame. For years they would finish in the top 12, but never in the top four to make the playoffs. Expansion has changed that and now Penn State is one game away from the Nationa Championship. In the first round of the playoffs in 2024, Penn State hosted SMU. They were the runner-ups in the ACC championship game but did not stand a chance vs. the Nittany Lions. SMU lost 38-10 and Penn State won with ease.

In their second playoff game, Penn State faced the Mountain West champion Boise State Broncos. They featured Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty who had an incredible season as RB. However, Penn State’s defense bottled up Jeanty and the Nittany Lions won 31-14. Notre Dame is favored slightly ahead of Penn State in the Orange Bowl. They’ve faced tougher opponents compared to who Penn State has played. Indiana and Georgia are better wins than SMU and Boise State. Can the Nittany Lions use that as momentum tonight when they face Notre Dame? Head coach James Franklin will look to get over the hump and erase the narrative that he can’t win a big game. This is by far the most meaningful game in his tenure with Penn State.