Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew’s has unearthed a whole host of interesting angles for Saturday’s racing action.
There’s some fantastic racing on Saturday October 30th and in-form Andrew has five recommended bets:
TEMPLEHILLS (system – time of year)
TEMPLEHILLS, like many trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, thrives at this time of year. He’s won four of his eight starts in October, improving to four from five when racing in Class 3 or lower company. He won well at Stratford at the start of this month and can defy a 4lb higher mark.
BAY BRIDGE (system – New Bay 3yos, won last time out)
Three-year-old progeny of New Bay have had a good year, winning 41 of their 178 starts (23%) for a profit of £21.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Last-time-out winners followed up at a rate of almost 50% (17 from 35) for a profit of £37.02 and BAY BRIDGE, arguably unlucky not to be unbeaten in his five-race career, will take all the beating in this Listed contest.
HAAFAPIECE (system – Pam Sly break returners)
Pam Sly does well with horses returning from a break (150+ days), scoring with 29 of the 253 qualifiers (11.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £139.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. HAAFAPIECE ran well at Wetherby on hie comeback last term, finishing a 16-1 fourth of 11, just over four lengths behind the winner. He can race keenly, so today’s big field and likely strong pace will suit his patient running style. On Friday’s evidence it may be an advantage to challenge late/wide and it will be disappointing if he doesn’t hit the frame.
INVINCIBLE SOLDIER (system -The Gurkha 3yos, 1m1f-1m2f)
Three-year-old progeny of The Gurkha are ideally suited by a trip between 1m1f and 1m2f, which could account for the defeat of INVINCIBLE SOLDIER over the extended 1m4f here last time. Clive Cox’s gelding failed to see out the trip that day and looks very interesting back over this extended 1m1f, having scored over course and distance on his penultimate start. Backing his sire’s runners over 1m1f-1m2f would have found 12 winners from 60 bets for a profit of £39.97, including all-weather form figures of 42211211 (4-8).
SOPHOSC (system – Top 4 from the front over 1m2f at Newcastle last time out)
It’s very difficult to win from the front on the round course (distances of 1m2f or further) on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface and we would have made money by simply backing any last-time-out Newcastle frontrunner, who finished in the frame (top four), on their next start. This system has thrown up 46 winners from 197 bets (23.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £83.87 to a £1 level stake at SP. SOPHOSC, who ran too freely at the head of affairs when a modest fourth of 11 in a 1m4f Newcastle handicap last week, can bounce back here.
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