Racing advisor Andrew Mount is a regular contributor to the the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, GG.co.uk, William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV. His systems-based approach to betting has unearthed several winners and big-priced placed horses already this week and he shares his Saturday insights below.
It’s Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday October 16th but Andrew turns his attention to the supporting meetings with value selections at Catterick, Ffos Las, Leopardstown, Market Rasen and Wolverhampton:
2.15 – FILE ILLICO (system – chase debutants under top weight in handicaps)
Horses who avoid novice/beginners’ chase company and instead make their chase debuts under top weight in handicaps are profitable to back blind. Their trainers might regard them as well handicapped based on their hurdling form and they have often shown ability over the larger obstacles in point-to-points. FILE ILLICO was the big mover for this 2m handicap chase when the betting first opened and Jonjo O’Neill’s six-year-old won his sole point start by 30 lengths.
3.15 – NEW ENERGY (systems – New Bay second time out 2yos on turf & New Bay 2yos over 7f+ on turf)
Progeny of New Bay have a solid record on their second career start, winning nine of their 45 starts (18.8% strike-rate). On turf only, that improves to eight from 34 (23.5%) for a small profit of £2.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. Simply backing all New Bay progeny over 7f or further on turf, regardless of how many previous runs they’d had, would have found 22 winners from 85 bets (25.9%) for a profit of £48.20. NEW ENERGY added to those gains with an 11-1 debut success at the Curragh last month and can follow up in this Group 3 contest.
3.55 – ZAMANI (system – chase debutants under top weight in handicaps)
ZAMANI, a dual winner on the Flat and successful over hurdles, looks interesting now pitched into handicap company under a big weight on his chase debut. The five-year-old has placed at 20-1 and 16-1 on his two seasonal debuts for his current yard and his handicap mark of 107 could be on the generous side. He was rated 9lb higher when a solid 66-1 six of 16 (beaten by ten lengths) in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last December and if his jumping holds up he should be in the frame.
4.50 – OVERTHINK (system – Mark Johnston runners who wore first-time blinkers on their latest outing)
Mark Johnston has a very modest strike-rate with his first-time blinkered runners, scoring with just eight of the 152 qualifiers since the beginning of 2014 (5.3%) for a loss of £105.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners was over 16). That same group of horses produced a profit of £105.63 on their next run, whether the headgear was retained or not, and OVERTHINK could take the beating in this apprentice handicap. The son of Golden Horn bumped into a progressive sort in Spantik when fitted with the blinkers for the first time at Redcar last month and his only previous win came at today’s venue.
5.30 – RHYME SCHEMEME
RHYME SCHEME, a 16-1 scorer at Chelmsford last time, looks interesting now switched to Wolverhampton. Poet’s Voice progeny do well at this venue in the warmer month, landing 30 of their 209 starts between March and October (14.4%) for a profit of £58.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who won last-time out were nine from 21 for a profit of £35.75.
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