Broadcaster and journalist Andrew Mount is back with more horse racing betting tips. He’s been doing this for over 20 years with columns in the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook. Andrew is also a tipster for GG.co.uk. Tune in to his latest thoughts and analysis on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV. Andrew’s angle into betting uses statistics and systems that puts him ahead of the competition.
Andrew sets off in search of more winners on a fairly busy Tuesday in the British horse racing world. See his selections from Beverley, Lingfield, Newcastle and Warwick below…
1.00 – DELICATE KISS (system – sire Delegator with 3yo+ on the AW)
Older progeny of Deligator have a solid record on All-Weather tracks and had we backed those aged three and above we would have won 87 of our 642 bets (13.6% strike-rate) and made a profit of £169.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. If we knock out the Fibresand runners, then the profit improves to £195.13 (+32% on turnover).
DELICATE KISS, who looks well drawn in stall 6, was a respectable fourth 14-1 at Epsom last time despite not having the greatest record on turf (just one win from 20 starts). Her All-Weather record is far superior (six wins from 34), and her course and distance form in handicap company on standard going reads 3122153211 (4-10).
2.00 – GIFT HORSE (system – James Tate nursery runners, recent outing)
James Tate has a fine record with his runners in nursery handicaps, especially with those who previously raced within the past four weeks. This system has thrown up 31 winners from 115 runners (27% strike-rate) for a profit of £31.79 to a £1 level stake at SP. GIFT HORSE was disappointing over course and distance last time, but perhaps got racing too soon and is worth another chance with William Buick, on board for his latest win, returning to the saddle.
2.25 – LA RAV (system – won despite failing to settle last time)
Horses who were described as having ‘raced freely’ in the early stages of a race rarely go on to win, but those that do make good bets to follow up. In the past five years, there have been 67 such winners according to the database I use. No less than 24 of them (35.8%) followed-up on their keen-going victory. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £42.19 to the usual £1 stake and course winner LA RAV qualifies here.
3.35 – DREAMS OF THUNDER (system – sire Night Of Thunder, 2yos on turf)
Juvenile progeny of Night Of Thunder had a good record on turf, winning 42 of their 197 starts (21.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £44.82 to a £1 level stake at SP. DREAMS OF THUNDER has failed to score after four starts but placed in the first three of them and was an outclassed 100-1 shot in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York last time.
She caught the eye from off the pace when a four-length runner-up at Windsor on her penultimate start. It’s interesting to see connections take in another novice contest with Dreams Of Thunder rather than try to exploit what looks a lenient handicap mark in nursery company.
COUNTISTER (systems – quick returning hurdle winners & Ben Haslam long travellers)
COUNTISTER was a winner for this column at Kelso last week and she qualifies as a bet on a couple of angles today. One very simple system that shows a small but consistent profit is to side with last-time out hurdle winners who are returned to the track quickly (within seven days) to contest a handicap hurdle in Britain.
Since the beginning of 2012 this has produced 313 winners from 783 bets (40% strike-rate) and made a profit of £47.79 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s hardly earth shattering (+6.1% on turnover) but, by taking exchange SP (+13.3%) or the best price the evening before racing, we would have enhanced our profit.
Countister is trained in Middleham by Ben Haslam whose long travellers (more than 150 miles) are also worth a second glance. If we had bet on them in handicaps, Flat or jumps, after a recent run (within 14 days) we’d have found nine winners from 26 bets since 2010 for a profit of £20.05. Only eight of those were last time out winners and five won (+£9.55).
COBRA DE MAI (system – small field)
COBRA DE MAI is best in small fields, winning seven of his 14 chase starts in fields of nine or fewer runners for a profit of £23.60 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s blanked in all 14 attempts when faced with a field of ten or more runners over fences. Cobra De Mai makes his debut for Caroline Bailey today. It’s interesting to note that the last horse she acquired from the Dan Skelton yard won at the first time of asking, here at Warwick. Harry Skelton, on board for his seven chase wins, takes the ride.
5.50 – CAPLA LASS (system – Sire Garswood on Tapeta)
Progeny of Garswood have won 13 of their 98 starts on Tapeta (here or at Wolverhampton) for a profit of £45.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The bulk of the profits come from three and four-year-olds, so CAPLA LASS, who took a step forward when third at Beverley last time, is taken to break her duck.
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