Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
The action hots up on Tuesday (May 17th) and Andrew has five bets on the Flat at Nottingham, Wolverhampton (AW) and Brighton. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NOTTINGHAM 1.10
MAXI KING (system – Amo Racing-owned racecourse debutants)
Since the beginning of last year, Amo Racing-owned newcomers have won 18 of their 65 starts (27.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £40.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. The David Loughnane-trained MAXI KING can be backed to add to those gains in this 5f maiden.
WOLVERHAMPTON 2.50
PATONTHEBACK (system – Kodi Bear, Wolverhampton)
Progeny of the sire Kodi Bear have a great record at Wolverhampton, landing 16 of their 68 starts (23.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £77.48 to a £1 level stake at SP. Both PATONTHEBACK and Forbearing qualify in this 7f handicap, with Patontheback getting the vote as he has the lower draw – stall 3, as opposed to stall 10.
NOTTINGHAM 3.10
THANKS MONICA (system – Ralph Beckett/Rob Hornby trainer/jockey combination)
Prior to Monday night’s racing at Windsor, Ralph Beckett and Rob Hornby were 75 from 404 when joining forces (18.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £92.92 to the usual £1 stake. The Beckett yard has been slow to get going this term but recent signs have been more encouraging and they could be due a glut of winners. THANKS MONICA can get the ball rolling in this fillies’ handicap.
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.50
YOU ARE EVERYTHING (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Belardo don’t have the greatest record but those aged three or older are profitable to back blind on the Flat, especially over longer trips. Had we only backed them over trips of 1m or further we’d have won 37 of our 218 bets (17%) and made a profit of £112.70 to a £1 level stake at SP (prior to yesterday’s racing at Redcar and Windsor where there were four qualifiers). YOU ARE EVERYTHING has shown ability over shorter trips in three novice runs here and will appreciate the step up in trip on her handicap debut.
BRIGHTON 4.00
MITIGATED RISK (system – John Butler, cheekpieces, no headgear last-time out)
John Butler has a good record with cheekpieces, especially on those who did not wear any form of headgear on their latest start. These could be first-time cheekpieces or re-applied ones. Since the spring of 2016, the qualifiers are 12 from 69 (17.4%) for a profit of £51.88. MITIGATED RISK was well backed ahead of his stable debut at Yarmouth last time, but his patient style was at a huge disadvantage thanks to the tailwind. He finished three and a half lengths back in fourth and the cheekpieces go on for the first time today.
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