Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has five selections on Thursday, April 7th, including two at Aintree on Day 1 of the Grand National meeting. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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AINTREE 2.20
INCA PRINCE (system – Fast Company, hurdles, good to soft or softer going)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company have a 31 from 231 record (13.4% strike-rate) when competing over hurdles on good to soft or slower going for a profit of £24.80 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who made the running were seven from 19 for a profit of £13.63. INCA PRINCE looks the only front-runner in today’s line-up and is three from three when ridden by today’s pilot Jamie Hamilton. He needs to improve but at 50-1, his general price at the time of writing, he’s worth a speculative each-way interest.
AINTREE 4.40
THE LAST DAY (system – fresh)
Since his racecourse debut, THE LAST DAY has done fantastically well when running after a break of at least six weeks. His record under these conditions reads 19141F1156F (5-11) for a profit of £20.32 to a £1 level stake at SP. That profit was almost boosted considerably when he ran at Haydock on his reappearance this term but the 25-1 shot fell at the last fence when two lengths in front. He’s a course and distance winner and could surprise on his return from a 75-day break if the ground doesn’t dry out too much.
TAUNTON 4.52
HELFORD RIVER (system – Colin Tizzard handicappers, fresh)
Colin Tizzard had a torrid time of things last season but his horses became well handicapped as a result. Since September 1st last year, those who were running in a handicap after a break of at least 150 days won seven of their 36 starts for a profit of £31.00. HELFORD RIVER has undergone wind surgery since his modest third at Fontwell 169 days ago and can return to winning ways.
CHELMSFORD 6.15
MARMALASHES (system – top four from the front at Newcastle (AW) last time out)
It remains difficult to win from the front on the round course (races over 1m2f+) on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface and those who finish in the top four under forcing tactics often make good bets next time. MARMALASHES was well beaten in novice company there last time but that was her third run for a mark and she looks the type to do better now handicapping.
CHELMSFORD 6.45
Light Up Our Stars (system – Tony Carroll, stall 1 at Chelmsford)
Tony Carroll is eight from 30 with his stall 1 runners at Chelmsford (not including the old Great Leighs) and backing them all would have returned a profit of £34.30 to a £1 level stake at SP. This 7f trip is on the sharp side for LIGHT UP OUR STARS but there should he a strong gallop on and he can reward each-way support.
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