Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has uncovered some interesting stats-based punting angles for the racing at Carlisle, Chepstow and Haydock on Friday, May 27th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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CARLISLE 1.10
LISTEN AGAIN (system – Tim Easterby, first-time blinkers, turf handicaps)
In-form Tim Easterby has a 22 from 178 record in the when using first-time blinkers on the Flat (turf only) in the past ten years and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £57.63 to the usual £1 stake. LISTEN AGAIN is a 22-race maiden but was perked up by first-time cheekpieces last summer and the switch to blinkers can see her reward each-way support.
CHEPSTOW 3.40
COMMONSENSICAL (system – Hugo Palmer, first-time blinkers)
Hugo Palmer is 13 from 101 with his first-time blinkered runners for a profit of £18.13 to a £1 level stake. The geldings are eight from 42 for a profit of £33.88 and COMMONSENSICAL, a winner in a first-time visor when with Tom Dascombe, could benefit from the change of headgear on his reappearance.
CHEPSTOW 4.50
CONTESSA VERDE (system – Kubler yard, stepping up in trip to 1m+)
The stable of Claire and Daniel Kubler employ stride-pattern and gene analysis to determine the best trip for their horses and it’s always worth taking note when one of their inmates is upped in distance to 1m or further. Since racing resumed after lockdown one in June 2020, four of the 20 qualifiers have won for a profit of £61.50. Five of the beaten horses made the frame (66-1, 25-1, 22-1, 9-1 and 6-1) and, though a huge price after finishing well held over 7f at Newbury on her debut last month, CONTESSA VERDE could out-run her odds in this 1m2f maiden.
HAYDOCK 7.25
OH SWEET TABU (system – Richard Hannon 2yos, second start in May)
OH SWEET TABU ran green when beaten by over eight lengths into third at York on her debut and can put that experience to good use here. She drops from Class 2 to Class 4 level and juveniles from the Hannon yard who were having their second outing in May have a 49 from 131 record since 2013 (37.4%) for a profit of £45.11.
HAYDOCK 8.25
HAIL SEZER (system – poorly drawn at Wetherby last time out, recent run)
A very low draw is unhelpful over the shorter trips (5f-7f) at Wetherby and in the past four years had we bet any runner drawn 1, 2 or 3 when turned out quickly (within four weeks) for it’s next start, regardless of where they finished at Wetherby, we’d have won 16 of our 90 bets and made a profit of £22.68. Those who finished in the top 7 at Wetherby were 16 from 64 for a profit of £48.68. HAIL SEZER took the inside route from stall 1 when third at Wetherby last time and the stall 2 runner Young Tiger (fifth), who also challenged on the ‘dead’ rail, placed at 25-1 on his next start. The first-time cheekpieces could eke out some improvement and he makes each-way appeal.
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