The usual suspects top the ‘most passing yards’ odds market, with many observers struggling to look past two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes as the NFL’s most potent quarterback once again. We take a comprehensive look through the rest of the field to see if there are indeed any worthy challengers.
Odds-setters are slowly releasing NFL futures markets ahead of the new season, which gets underway on Thursday 7th September in Kansas City.
Last season’s rampant Super Bowl champions – the Chiefs – play host to Detroit Lions at the Arrowhead for 2023’s season opener, and the question on everyone’s lips is, who can possibly rival Patrick Mahomes as the leading QB?
On the way to his second Super Bowl title, he also became the first player to win the season and Super Bowl MVP since Kurt Warner in 1999.
Forming a point-laden partnership with Travis Kelce, Mahomes managed to finish the regular season as the passing yards leader for the first time in his career, throwing for 5,250 yards across 17 appearances.
That total puts him fourth in the overall single-season records, behind only to Tom Brady, Drew Bees and Peyton Manning.
Even at his lowest total, Mahomes still managed to throw for 4,740 yards in 15 games. Although observers can have their doubts over whether the Kansas supporting cast is dynamic enough, he has all the tools in the box to maximise the potential of player ssuch as Sky Moore and Kadarious Toney.
Best of the Rest
Justin Herbert closely follows behind Mahomes in the current market, and the Chargers have a stacked offensive line for him to work with.
Second overall for passing yards last year (4,739), he may also benefit from the addition of new offensive co-ordinator Kellen Moore, as well as first round pick Quentin Johnson who joins veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to form a stellar receiving core.
Joe Burrow completes the top three favourites according to sportsbooks, and he should be right up there once more. The AFC North is notoriously cutthroat and he may not be able to put up the numbers to match Mahomes, but 4,475 yards last season (fifth overall) ranks him firmly among the leading signal callers.
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in front of him should be enough for any QB to hit a big season total, but the Bengals did have a tendency to lean on their run game, ranking third overall for rushing yards in 2022.
Further down the field, Kirk Cousins comes in at fourth but questions remain over the Vikings offence who were, by all accounts, rather fortunate to finish with a 13-4 record. Cousins is a shining light in an otherwise divisive team however, and he did finish fourth overall last year.
One to maybe keep an eye on as a value selection could be Dak Prescott, who may be rejuvenated by an off-season of change in Dallas.
Brian Schottenheimer replaces Kellen Moore as offensive co-ordinator, while Brandon Cooks arrives from the Texans having registered six 1,000-plus receiving yards seasons across his nine years in the NFL.
Add to that CeeDee Lamb who had 107 receptions and over 1,300 receiving yards last year, there is plenty for Prescott to aim for in an intriguing season for the Cowboys.
Most Passing Yards Odds For 2023 NFL Regular Season
- Patrick Mahomes: +250
- Justin Herbert: +450
- Joe Burrow: +900
- Kirk Cousins: +900
- Tua Tagovailoa: +1200
- Trevor Lawrence: +1600
- Josh Allen: +1800
- Jared Goff: +2800
- Dak Prescott: +2800
- Lamar Jackson +2800
- Aaron Rodgers: +3300
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