As we enter the final four-game home stretch of the 2023 NFL season, each passing game becomes increasingly important for teams with playoff hopes. This is especially true for the jumble of 7–6 teams that are presently vying for a wild card spot in the AFC postseason picture, as there are six teams with identical records that are separated only by a confusing mass of tiebreakers. Two of those teams are the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers, and there are no NFL teams that have more to play for in Week 15 than them.
Most Important Games Of NFL Week 15
UPDATED PLAYOFF PICTURE 🚨 pic.twitter.com/FTXHqfHard
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 12, 2023
Both teams suffered tough losses in Week 14 in games that would have helped separate them from the pack. The Steelers came up short against the lowly Patriots on Thursday night, and the Colts lost to the surprising Bengals on Sunday, but they are still in the 6th and 7th spots currently and would both qualify for the postseason if the season ended today.
Based on PFF’s models and playoff projections, they are the two NFL teams that have the biggest potential swings in their playoff odds. And as luck would have it, they are set to square off against one another this Sunday.
Big Matchups In Each Conference Could Shake Things Up
Steelers’ HC Mike Tomlin ruled out QB Kenny Pickett for Saturday’s game vs. the Colts. Mitch Tribusky starts again.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 11, 2023
The Colts have the biggest “leverage” play of the weekend. They currently have a 44% playoff chance, and will see that number bump up to 66% with a win. Should they lose, however, then Indy would tumble down to 20%, for a total leverage of 46%.
The Steelers aren’t far behind those numbers. Their leverage swing is similar, coming in at 44%, with Pittsburgh’s chances dropping all the way down to 12% should they be the ones on the losing end.
On the NFC side, Week 15 will be massively important for three teams in particular. The Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Packers all have leverage possibilities of 38% or more, as there is a similar situation in that conference with so many teams with similar records. The most important game in that conference this weekend will be between Green Bay and Tampa Bay, and the winner will have their odds boosted to over 70%.
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