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Chester Tips and Trends For ITV Horse Racing On Friday

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chester races

The Chester May Meeting moves into it’s third and final day this afternoon (Friday 6th May). The ITV4 horse racing cameras are also at Chester racecourse to take in the first five races on day three. Andy Newton has the main races covered with key trends and tips.

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Chester Horse Racing Trends and Tips (ITV/RacingTV) – Friday 6th May 2022

1.30 – ICM Stellar Sports Earl Grosvenor Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV4

17/19 – Didn’t win their last race
16/19 – Had a previous run that season
16/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
15/19 – Had won over this trip before (or further)
15/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/19 – Had run before at Chester
14/19 – Carried 8-10 or more
13/19 – Favourites placed
10/19 – Came from stall 5 or higher
9/19 – Horses placed from stall 1
9/19 – Won by a 4 year-old
5/19 – Won by the favourite
4/19 – Winning horses from stall 1
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding

BEST BET: 15 of the last 19 winners were aged 4 or 5 here, so that would be a negative for the older horses in the race – Revich, Boardman and Repertoire. Also horses that didn’t win last time out but have had a previous run this season and finished unplaced last time have done well.

The Ryan Moore-ridden Boosala will be popular from the William Haggas yard, but a chance is taken on the Hugo Palmer runner – FOOLS RUSH IN @ 11/2 with Boylesports. This 4 year-old is a proven CD winner at the track and despite not running for 195 days won first time out last season so that’s not too much of a worry. Draw 4 looks okay too and his overall track form here reads well 3-3-1-1.

Of the rest, a chance is also taken on the Ralph Beckett runner – TOMFRE (e/w) @ 20/1 with Boylesports – who ticks a lot of the mentioned main trends too. Another that’s having his first run back from a break and is back down to his last winning mark (101).

 

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2.05 – Deepbridge Handicap Cl2 1m2 1/2f ITV4

12/12 – Won at least twice before
11/12 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
11/12 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/12 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/12 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Rated between 90-95
9/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/12 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

BEST BET: 9 of the last 12 winners here came from stalls 6 or lower, while 11 of the last 12 winning horses were aged between 4-6 years-old. The age stat only knocks out one though – the 10 year-old – Restorer.

Course winner – Mujtaba – can be expected to be better for a recent run at Doncaster when favourite (12th) for the Lincoln Handicap, but does have a bit to prove and is up to 1m2f here for the first time.

Brentford Hope is the top-weight and has to be considered but does find it hard to win. The one to have an interest on is BARYSHNIKOV (e/w) @ 9/2 with Boylesports, who does seem to like it here at Chester (2 wins). He also won at this meeting last season and despite being 10lbs higher here gets into this better race with just 8-9 in weight to carry.

2.40 – Irish Throughbred Marketing IRE-Incentive Scheme Huxley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV4

18/19 – Aged either a 4 or 5 year-old
16/19 – Had won over 1m2f before
14/19 – Had a previous race that season
14/19 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd in this race
14/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Winners from between stalls 1-4
11/19 – Failed to win their previous race
10/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Returned 6/4 or shorter in the betting
6/19 – Had raced at Chester before
6/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
5/19 – Ran in the John Porter at Newbury before winning this
5/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

BEST BET: Al Aasy (now a non-runner) will have a big chance here as the top-rated in the field, but does have a bit to prove at the moment having lost his last four. Majestic Dawn has a squeak, while you feel Certain Lad has a bit to find on these terms.

Frankie and Gosden’s entry – Megallan – will have his suporters and can be expected to be a lot fitter for a recent second at Newmarket in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. But is another that has a bit to prove at this G2 level.

So, the call is SOLID STONE @ 9/4 with Boylesports, for the Sir Michael Stoute yard that have won this race 5 times in the last 19 years. Was also seen running down the field in a G3 in Saudi, but if you can forgive that run in Feb would have a big chance on his G3 wins at Windsor and Newbury at the end of last season – where he had Al Aasy in behind.

 

logo boylesportsBoylesports Special Offer – Money back if your horse is 2nd to the SP Fav (max refund £20). Applies to singles and win part of e/w bets in horses races in UK/Ire with 5 or more runners in. (Ts&C’s apply)

 

3.15 – tote+ Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f147y ITV4

18/19 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
14/19 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
13/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/19 – Officially rated between 93-99
13/19 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
12/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Won from stall 7 or lower
12/19 – Carried 9-2 or less
12/19 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/19 – Favourites were unplaced
9/19 – Irish bred
4/19 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
3/19 – Had won at the track before
3/19 – Won their previous race
2/19 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/19 – Won by the favourite
1/19 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12/1

Key Chester Cup Stats

The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
Since 1981 only 8 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
4 of the last 11 winners came from NH yards
6 of the last 8 winners carried 9st or more
3 of the last 9 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 4 of the last 13 winners

BEST BET: Last year’s Chester Cup winner – FALCON EIGHT @ 5/1 with Boylesports – will be looking to become the first horse since Anak Pekan (2004/05) to win the Chester Cup in ‘back-to-back’ seasons and with Frankie Dettori riding again will be popular.

This Dermot Weld runner is rated 5lbs higher this time, but beat The Grand Visir, who is back for more too, by 2 lengths that day and has been handed a good draw in 6 – 12 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 7 or lower.

A recent run at Fairyhouse over hurdles will have blown away the cobwebs and can go well again for the shrewd Dermot Weld yard who would have had this race as a target again.

Solent Getaway was a good winner over 2m here last August and has been popular in the betting – gets in with just 8-6 in weight and draw 7 is fine.

Others drawn low are Rajinsky, Coltrane, Reshoun, Land Of Winter and Arcadian Sunrise.

Despite having a lot of winners at this meeting over the years, trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won the Chester Cup. He, however, has a live chance this year with Cleveland with Ryan Moore riding, but might have to hope for some luck in-running from draw 10.

The other of interest though is the already-mentioned – COLTRANE @ 5/1 with Boylesports. The Andrew Balding yard won this in 2017 and this 5 year-old, who has a nice draw in 2, will be spot-on for this after a fair second at Kempton (AW) back in March. He gets in with a nice racing weight of 8-12 too and heads here having won 3 of his 4 runs on the turf.

3.45 – Boodles Secret Garden Conditions Stakes Cl3 (3yo+) 5f ITV4

8/8 – Drawn in stalls 3-8 (inc)
7/8 – Had won at Chester before
6/8 – Irish bred
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Winners from stalls 3 (3) or 6 (2)
5/8 – Aged 5 years-old
5/8 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/8 – Rated 100+
3/8 – Winning favourites
0/8 – Winners from stall 1

BEST BET: With 5 of the last 8 winners coming from stalls 3 or 6, then this is a decent trend to note. Blue De Vega is drawn 3 and Acklam Express is drawn 6.

The Queen has another runner – King’s Lynn – and looks set to go off well fancied or even favourite after a good win at Doncaster last November. But we’ve not seen a winner from stall 1 in the last 8 runnings, which is the small worry.

All of the last 8 winners came between stalls 3-8 too – the ones that fit the bill here are Blue De Vega, King Of Stars, Night On Earth, Acklam Express and Regional.

But I’m happy to stick with the good draw stat here and BLUE DE VEGA @ 10/1 with Boylesports and ACKLAM EXPRESS @ 5/1 with Boylesports. The former was a good winner last time at Newbury and the 3lbs hike up the ratings is offset with jockey Luke Catton claiming 5lbs.

Acklam Express has been running in better races (Group level) so will find this ease into a handicap more to his liking, but is also a proven Listed winner in the past so brings a bit of class to the race.

 

logo boylesportsBoylesports Special Offer – Money back if your horse is 2nd to the SP Fav (max refund £20). Applies to singles and win part of e/w bets in horses races in UK/Ire with 5 or more runners in. (Ts&C’s apply)

 

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Chester May Meeting – Day Three Tips
Tom Segal (Pricewise) Chester Tips
Paul Kealy (Racing Post) Chester Tips
Templegate (Sun Newspaper) Chester Tips

Chester May Meeting Race Time – Friday 6th May 2022

  • 1:30 – Icm Stellar Sports Earl Grosvenor Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7½f ITV4
  • 2:05 – Deepbridge Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m2½f ITV4
  • 2:40 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Ire-Incentive Scheme Huxley Stakes (Group 2) (IRE Incentive Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2½f ITV4
  • 3:15 – tote+ Chester Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 2m2½f ITV4
  • 3:45 – Boodles Secret Garden Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) Cl3 (3yo+) 5f ITV4
  • 4:20 – White Oak Apprentice Handicap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-80) 1m4½f SKY
  • 4:55 – tote+ Chester Plate Handicap (For The Bobby McAlpine Memorial Cup) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m2½f SKY

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