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Chester Cup Trends | Stats To Help Find The Winner Of 2022 Race

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This Friday, the Chester Cup (3:15) is the feature race on the final day of the 2022 Chester May Meeting, so to help narrow down the 15 runners Andy Newton’s got the main Chester Cup trends – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners.


Did You Know? We’ve only seen two Chester Cup winning favourites in the last 19 runnings, while 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 or younger


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Let’s Take A Look At The Main Chester Cup Trends

Chester Cup Age Trend – In 2016, an 8 year-old won the Chester Cup, but since 1986 all bar that winner were aged 7 or younger. In more recent times, 18 of the last 19 (95%) winners were aged 7 or younger too, while 14 of the last 19 winning horses were aged 5, 6 or 7. 12 months ago the winner was aged 7 year-old – Falcon Eight.

But, at the other end of the age spectrum, you can’t rule out the 4 year-olds, with the winner in 2019 – Making Miracles – this age. We’ve had two 4 year-olds win the Chester Cup since 2015. In summary with the age trend  – it’s probably best to avoid the older horses (8+).

Chester Cup Recent Form Trend – With a massive 13 of the last 19 (68%) winners finishing unplaced last time out, then don’t be too concerned if the horse you like comes here without some good recent form to its name.

That said, having winning form over at least 2m on the flat in the past is something to note, while having a run within the last two months is another positive – 12 of the last 19 winners backed up this stat.

Chester Cup Weight Trend – Being a handicap, then it’s worth looking back at past weight trends. 12 of the last 19 (63%) winners carried 9st 2lbs or less, but – a small word of caution – as the last four successful horses, plus 6 of the last 8 winners carried 9st or more, then this weight stat might be moving the other way.

Since 1981, only eight winners have carried more than 9st 2lb to victory – but, as mentioned, a lot of these have been in recent years. With 13 of the last 19 winners rated between 93-99, which is, of course, closely tied in with the weight trend, but this is another angle into the race.

Chester Cup Draw Trend – Most of us know that Chester racecourse is one of the tightest flat tracks in the land – with most of the course on a turn. Therefore, even over this longer 2m2f trip the draw can play a big part. It’s normally a race that’s well contested too – in 2021 there were 16 runners – so having a nice early pitch (that a good draw can provide) can be the difference between winning and losing.

This is supported up with 12 of the last 19 winners drawn from stalls 7 or lower, but the 2019 winner – Making Miracles – did defy this stat by winning from stall 16 and last year’s winner – Falcon Eight – also kicked this stat into touch coming from stall 10, so a small note of caution here.

Chester Cup Favourites Trend – It’s not been too good a race for favourite backers either – since 1975, we’ve only had four winning market leaders and only two in the last 19 runnings. The averaging winning SP in the last 19 years has been 12/1 and with 12 of the last 19 winners priced 10/1 or shorter – including last year’s winner (Falcon Eight), who returned at an SP of 15/2.

With this in mind – outside the favourite you generally don’t have to look too far down the betting to find the winner – with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th in the market hotspots to find the winner in recent years.

Chester Cup Trainer Trends – We’ve already mentioned that the Chester Cup is a race the NH stables like to target – in the last 11 renewals we’ve seen four winners from jumping stables take the first prize – the last being the Nicky Henderson win in 2016.

While, in terms of other yards to note, the Richard Fahey and Ian Williams camps have both won the race twice each since 2007. But last year’s winner was the first Irish-trained successful horse in recent times.

It’s also a race that popular owner – Dr Marwan Koukash – loves to target. Rarely a Chester May Meeting goes by with the ‘Good Doctor (as he’s known)’ having a winner and his famous grey colours have been responsible for four of the last 13 Chester Cup winners – Dr Koukash is sure to have a few more patients in the race again in 2022, with Reshoun entered at this stage.


RELATED: Chester Day Three Tips and Trends For ALL Today’s ITV races here


Chester Cup Trends and Stats For 2022 Race

  • 18/19 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
  • 16/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
  • 14/19 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
  • 13/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
  • 13/19 – Officially rated between 93-99
  • 13/19 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
  • 12/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 12/19 – Won from stall 7 or lower
  • 12/19 – Carried 9-2 or less
  • 12/19 – Had raced within the last 2 months
  • 11/19 – Favourites were unplaced
  • 4/19 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
  • 3/19 – Had won at the track before
  • 3/19 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
  • 3/19 – Won their previous race
  • 2/19 – Trained by Ian Williams
  • 2/19 – Won by the favourite
  • 1/19 – Irish-trained winners (2021)
  • The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12/1

Other Chester Cup Stats

  • The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
  • Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
  • The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
  • Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
  • Since 1981 only 8 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
  • 4 of the last 11 winners came from NH yards
  • 6 of the last 8 winners carried 9st or more
  • 3 of the last 9 winners returned 10/1
  • Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 4 of the last 13 winners

Watch Falcon Eight Winning The 2021 Chester Cup

Recent Chester Cup Winners

  • 2021 – Falcon Eight (15/2)
  • 2020 – No Race
  • 2019 – Making Miracles (16/1)
  • 2018 – Magic Circle (8/1)
  • 2017 – Montaly (16/1)
  • 2016 – No Heretic (11/1)
  • 2015 – Trip To Paris (10/1)
  • 2014 – Suegioo (10/1)
  • 2013 – Address Unknown (12/1)
  • 2012 – Il De Re (10/1)
  • 2011 – Overturn (11/2)
  • 2010 – Mamlook (7/1 fav)
  • 2009 – Daraahem (7/1)
  • 2008 – Bulwark (33/1)
  • 2007 – Greenwich Meantime (14/1)
  • 2006 – Admiral (28/1)
  • 2005 – Anak Pekan (16/1)
  • 2004 – Anak Pekan (2/1 fav)
  • 2003 – Hugs Dancer (9/1)
  • 2002 – Fantasy Hill (8/1)

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