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Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis – Saturday November 20th

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Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount casts his eye over Saturday’s SpreadEx markets to find the best value spread betting and fixed odds opportunities.

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Andrew’s sell of Tom Cannon’s performance returned a good profit on Friday (market made up at 5) and he has three more recommended bets/trades on Saturday:

Horse Racing Betting Tips for Saturday November 20th

HAYDOCK 1.15

Adam West’s THIBAULT needs a big field/strong pace scenario and this 2m3f handicap hurdle should be run to suit. They didn’t go quick enough for him when he was second of five at Fontwell on his return to action in October and it was a similar story when third at the same veneu shortly afterwards. He ran a blinder on the all-weather at Lingfield subsequently, keeping on into a 40-1 fourth in a 1m4f maiden behind runners from top yards (Crisford, Gosden and Balding) and his trainer has been in winning form over jumps this week. He can be bought at 7 with SpreadEx in the 50-25-10 market or backed each-way at 12-1 in the fixed odds betting.

Recommendation: Back THIBAULT in Haydock 1.15

ASCOT 2.40

BUZZ heads the market at 11-10 with SpreadEx for this five-runner Grade 2 contest but a small-field tactical scenario is far from ideal for last month’s Cesarewitch winner. His best efforts over hurdles have also come in big fields and seven of his eight career wins have taken place in fields of 11 or more runners. I also want to oppose 9-2 second favourite GOSHEN whose best form has come on heavy going. He was pulled out at Wincanton recently because of the good ground and his tendency to jump out to his right could see him on the far side of the track in the straight, rarely the place to be on the hurdles course at Ascot. As ever with SpreadEx, our options for opposing this pair are plentiful. We could sell both in the 50-25-10 market, ‘dutch’ the other three runners in the race or back ‘RAG’ in the ’FAV or RAG’ market at 11-8 in the fixed odds betting, which is my preferred method. Those looking for just one runner to oppose the front two in the betting with could do worse than GUARD YOUR DREAMS. He won well in a fast time at Cheltenham on his latest start and the form was franked when the third, Captain Morgs, won here yesterday.

Recommendation: Back RAG in ‘FAV or RAG’ market in Ascot 2.40

HAYDOCK 3.00

BRISTOL DE MAI is a fantastic performer here at Haydock when the mud’s flying but the ground, described as good to soft on the chase course, is going to be plenty quick enough for him and he looks poor value at 7-2, the price at the time of writing with SpreadEx. He won this race on officially good ground in 2018 but was at the peak of his powers then and runner-up Native River was even more reliant on deep ground. Good to soft ground found him out when only second to Lostintranslation in 2019 and he’s only scored once from his last nine starts, when taking this race 12 months ago on his preferred heavy going. Clan Des Obeaux, runner-up that day, invariably needs his first run of the season and he’d been off since the spring. This year’s race is much tougher and Bristol De Mai is starting the season as a ten-year-old. NEXT DESTINATION, like many from the Paul Nicholls yard, could improve for first-time cheekpieces, and IMPERIAL AURA could benefit from a step up in trip and wind surgery. WAITING PATIENTLY, runner-up to Frodon in last season’s King George, has a good record when fresh and is a potential improver on his first start for Christian Williams. The return to a flat course could see ROYAL PAGAILLE bounce back after his Gold Cup defeat and even CLONDAW CASTLE, who ran as though his Wetherby comeback run were needed, could sneak into the places. It’s harder to know what to do with 6-4 favourite A PLUS TARD – his record left-handed over fences reads 111213212 (4-8) and this flat track will suit, but he has seasonal debut figures of 222 (0-3). My original thinking was simply to sell Bristol De Mai in the 50-25-10 market but the optimist in me thinks we can get the front two in the betting beat, so I’m going to back ‘RAG’ in the Spread fixed odds ‘FAV or RAG’ market at 6-4 instead.

Recommendation: Back RAG in ‘FAV or RAG’ market in Haydock 3.00

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