Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew’s stats-based approach to betting regularly finds winners, often at big prices.
Andrew has three selections for the horse racing action at Ayr and Lingfield on Tuesday November 16th:
FANTASTIKAS (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies chase debutants in handicaps)
In-form Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record when putting a chase debutant straight into a handicap, especially after a layoff. Those who had been absent for more than five months are 30 from 117 this century (25.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £52.55. FANTASTIKAS has run well on both previous seasonal debuts and has solid claims here.
MR JACK (system – running style)
It often pays to challenge late and wide on the hurdles course at Lingfield, avoiding the cut-up ground on the inside rail, and the last five winners of this 2m3.5f handicap hurdle (most recent first) were described as follows…
Held up in last
Held up in last
Held up but soon prominent
When I first looked at this race, I wanted to side with Belle De Manech on the strength of the wind operation but her forcing style could put her at a disadvantage. Current favourite Smurphy Enki can also go from the front whereas MR JACK is a habitual ‘hold-up’ horse who will improve for his recent comeback fourth at Plumpton.
AFRICAN DANCE (system – chase debutants carrying top weight in handicaps)
In-form Olly Murphy sends AFRICAN DANCE a long way for his chase debut and it’s also interesting to see the six-year-old asked to carry top weight in a handicap rather than take the novice or beginners’ chase route. A handicap mark of 122 could underestimate him and he’s gone well on both previous seasonal debuts, running third to Martello Sky (now rated 140) in a Fakenham bumper despite racing on the slowest part of the track and doing best of the closers when third to Ajero (subsequently rated 140) in a novice hurdle at Ludlow.
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