Into the second day at the Cheltenham Festival (Thursday 17th March) and we’ve another reigning champion on show as the Willie Mullins-trained Allaho, one of the Cheltenham Festival bankers, looks to defend his Ryanair Chase title.
This power-house 8 year-old had been touted as a Cheltenham Gold Cup contender after last year’s Festival win, but staying that longer trip was the question mark.
Connections have, therefore, preferred to keep Allaho @ 8/13 with Fitzdares over the Ryanair trip of 2m4f and since that decision has been confirmed he’s been all the rage in the Ryanair Chase betting market.
If is able to win the 2022 Ryanair Chase he’ll become the first back-to-back winner since Albertas Run did the double in 2010 and 2011.
So, does the current Ryanair Chase champion – Allaho – tick the main Ryanair Chase trends this year, or is there any stats evidence he might be worth taking on?
Like most races at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, there are many key trends and stats to take into each contest.
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Did You Know? 13 of the last 17 Ryanair Chase winners had won at Cheltenham before, while 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old.
Key Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
- 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 13 of the 17 winners had won at Cheltenham before
- 11 of the last 14 had won or placed at the Festival before
- 10 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- Last 8 winners were French-bred
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends – Main Runners (based on the six main trends above)
ALLAHO ✅✅✅✅✅✅ Allaho @ 8/13 Fitzdares
SHAN BLUE ✅❌❌❌❌✅ Shan Blue @ 17/2 Fitzdares
JANIDIL ✅❌❌❌✅✅ Janidil @ 11/1 Fitzdares
CONFLATED ✅❌❌✅❌✅ Conflated @ 13/2 Fitzdares
ELDORADO ALLEN ❌✅✅✅✅✅ Eldorado Allen @ 14/1 Fitzdares
MELON ❌❌✅✅❌❌ Melon @ 16/1 Fitzdares
MISTER FISHER ❌✅❌❌❌✅ Mister Fisher @ 25/1 Fitzdares
Note: Odds are subject to change
A Clean Sweep Of Trends For Allaho
Last year’s Ryanair Chase winner – Allaho @ 8/13 with Fitzdares – will have the bookies running for cover as one of the main Cheltenham Festival bankers of the meeting – and it’s easy to see why.
The 8 year-old gets a clean sweep from our six main Ryanair trends, that include age, track and Festival form, being French-bred and coming from the top three in the betting.
Add in that he’s arguably improved again this season having beaten two of his main rivals – Janidil and Fakir D’oudairies at Punchestown and Thurles.
He’s now won five of his 10 starts over fences and only been out of the first three twice in those chase starts – they came on really heavy ground and over 3m!
Overall, there is sure to be plenty of layers looking to take him on at the short price, but with minimal chinks in his armour there will be many more punters willing to back Alloha.
Back Allaho@ 8/13 with Fitzdares
Ryanair Chase Trends – The Pluses
- 13 of the 17 winners had won at Cheltenham before
- 7 of the last 9 winners were 2nd season chasers
- All 14 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
- 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
- 11 of the last 14 had won or placed at the Festival before
- The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 28)
- The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
- 14 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
- 13 of the last 14 winners were rated 161+
- 4 of the last 17 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
- 13 of last 17 winners were fav or 2nd fav
- 10 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
- Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
- Respect first time headgear (3 from 10)
- 9 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- Last 8 winners were French-bred
- All winners ran 4 or less times that season
- 4 of the last 6 winners trained by Willie Mullins
Ryanair Chase Trends – The Negatives
- The Irish are 5 from 62 runners in this race
- Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
- No winner aged 11 or older
- Just one winner rated 160 or below
- Just 5 of the last 14 won last time out
- No winner was having their Festival debut
Recent Ryanair Chase Winners
2021 – ALLAHO
2020 – MIN
2019 – FRODON
2018 – BALKO des FLOS
2017 – UN DE SCEAUX
2016 – VAUTOUR
2015 – UXIZANDRE
2014 – DYNASTE
2013 – CUE CARD
2012 – RIVERSIDE THEATRE
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