Leading horse racing advisor, journalist and broadcaster Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew shares his latest system and stats-based selections below.
Andrew was among the winners yet again on Monday with CHANCE (8-1) and has four horse racing selections on Tuesday November 30th:
LINGFIELD 1.10
KING OF ICE (system – sire Ulysses)
Ulysses has enjoyed a good first season as a sire and had we bet all his representatives in Britain and Ireland this year we’d have won 16 of our 97 bets and made a profit of £31.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. On the all-weather only, the strike-rate improves considerably (six from 26, +£21.63), albeit from a small sample. KING OF ICE was too green to do himself justice when sixth at Newmarket on his debut and possibly failed to handle the soft ground when filling the same position next time, though did improve his RPR (Racing Post Rating) by 7lb. He can take another step forward here.
SOUTHWELL 1.25
UNE DE LA SENIERE (system – chase debutants, straight into handicap company under topweight)
Horse making their debut over fences do well when pitched straight into handicap company under top weight, especially at this time of year. UNE DE LA SENIERE, representing the in-form Fergal O’Brien team, took a year to acclimatise after leaving France but did well last term, winning on three occasions. Good ground suits and the step back up to three miles can see her open her chase account at the first attempt.
Bet on UNE DE LA SENIERE at SBK
NEWCASTLE 3.45
ROYDMOOR (system – sire Garswood on Tapeta)
Backing all progeny of the sire Garswood on Tapeta would have returned a profit of £24.00 to a £1 level stake at SP and had we limited out attention to the three-year-old handicappers we’d have found six winners from 33 bets for a profit of £41.75. ROYDMOOR was placed at 16-1 when a qualifier on this system last month and the return to Tapeta will suit after his last-time-out Pontefract defeat.
Back ROYDMOOR at SBK
NEWCASTLE 4.15
NAVAL CAPTAIN (system – Newcastle AW debut winners, next time out)
Horses who make successful racecourse debuts on Newcastle’s all-weather surface often follow up, with 32 of the 98 qualifiers winning on their second career start (32.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £18.20 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 24.95). NAVAL CAPTAIN overcame obvious signs of inexperience to justify 11-4 favouritism in a 6f novice contest here on November 8th, despite a tricky draw in stall 2, and could prove hard to beat.
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