Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to uncover value betting opportunities and and shares his insights for Tuesday’s racing below.
Andrew is back with three horse racing selections at Sedgefield and Wolverhampton on Tuesday November 23rd:
SEDGEFIELD 1.45
SIMPLE RULES (system – young chase debutants under top weight in handicaps)
Chase debutants who go straight into handicaps under a top weight, rather than take the novice chase route, often make good bets. Since the start of 2010 had we bet all the younger horses (aged four, five or six) we would have won 93 of our 512 bets (18.2% strike-rate) and made a profit of £48.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. Martin Todhunter’s SIMPLE RULES, runner-up in a point-to-point early last year, looks interesting now switching from hurdles.
SEDGEFIELD 2.45
LADY CHUFFNELL (system – young chase debutants under top weight in handicaps)
LADY CHUFFNELL qualifies on the same angle as Simple Rules in the 1.45 and it’s interesting to see Ben Pauling send her all the way to Sedgefield from his Gloucestershire base. Three of the yard’s last four runners have won and seasonal debutante Lady Chuffnell’s best efforts have come when fresh.
WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00
TROPEZ POWER (system – Richard Hannon, second run since gelded, finished in top six last time out)
Richard Hannon’s newly-gelded runners don’t have the greatest recent record, landing just 11 of their 126 starts since the beginning of 2018 (8.7% strike-rate) for a loss of £56.00 to the usual £1 stake. Those that run respectably (finishing in the top six) often take a big step forward on their second start after being gelded, landing 19 of their 78 starts (24.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £41.70. TROPEZ POWER was only sixth at Kempton last time despite attracting market support (8-1 from 16-1) but should improve for that run and could go well at a big price here.
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