Horse racing journalist and broadcaster Andrew Mount studies Wednesday’s SpreadEx markets to find the best value fixed odds and spread bets.
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Andrew advised 11-2 Catterick scorer DARK SHOT on Tuesday and has three more recommended bets/trades for Wednesday’s horse racing action:
Horse Racing Betting Tips for Wednesday October 27th
NOTTINGHAM 1.05
ISLAND FALCON ran well in third at Goodwood on his recent debut but Saeed Bin Suroor-trained juveniles are usually primed for their racecourse debuts and don’t necessarily improve at the second time of asking. In the past five years, those who finished in the top three on their racecourse debuts had a second-time-out record of just 15 from 85 (17.7% strike-rate) for a level stakes loss of £41.19 to a £1 level stake at SP (-48.5% on turnover). The expected number of winners was more than 23 and I’m happy to oppose the current 7-2 favourite in this mile maiden. Selling him in the 50-25-10 market with SpreadEx could be the way to go.
Recommendation: Oppose ISLAND FALCON in Nottingham 1.05
NOTTINGHAM 2.50
If the forecast headwind is as strong as predicted then MEHMO has a great chance in this 5f handicap. Mick Appleby’s three-year-old fared best of those to come from the rear when fifth of 14 over course and distance last time in a race where the pace held up. Several other hold-up horses from that race have won or run well in defeat since. His poor strike-rate (one win from 24 starts) is a slight concern but he’s not had many opportunities in 5f handicaps on turf for his current yard, recording form figures of 225135 (1-6). He was 9-1 at the time of writing in the SpreadEx fixed odds betting or can be bought on the spreads in the 50-25-10 race market.
Recommendation: Back MEHMO in Nottingham 2.50
FAKENHAM 3.50
Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with chase debutants going straight into handicap company on their return from a break of more than 150 days, scoring with 30 of the 114 qualifier this century (26.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £55.55 to a £1 level stake at SP. Taking the handicap route first-time out over fences, rather than running in a beginners’ or novices’ chase, suggests that he regards MACFIN as well handicapped in this 3m contest. He can be backed at 11-2 in the SpreadEx fixed odds market or bought in the 50-25-10 spread market.
Recommendation: Back MACFIN in Fakenham 3.50
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