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Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis – Thursday October 21

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Andrew Mount recommended Newmarket winner CLAYMORE at 8-1 with SpreadEx yesterday and picks out the best fixed odds and spread bets for Thursday’s horse racing action.

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Ludlow and Wolverhampton are the port of calls for in-form Andrew, who has uncovered some interesting angles for Thursday’s racing:

Horse Racing Betting Tips for Thursday October 21st

LUDLOW

LUDLOW has avoided the heavy rain that has hit the south of England and the going is currently described as ‘good (watered)’. I was tempted to buy winning distances with SpreadEx as the market could still make up pretty high, despite the absence of soft or heavy going. Ludlow’s fences take some jumping since they replaced them with portable ones a few seasons ago and the four-runner novices’ limited handicap chase (2.05) could throw up a wide-margin winner. Current favourite Raya Time, who makes his debut for Tom George, jumped indifferently when trained in Ireland, Flashing Glance made a bad blunder when beaten by 14 lengths over course and distance earlier this month and Golden Taipan clouted one when beaten by ten lengths in the same race. The other runner – Battle Of Acclaim – is making his debut for a new yard and would prefer slower going. However, the 2m4f amateur jockeys’ handicap chase (3.15) features mostly sound jumpers, apart from 10-1 shot Muse Of Fire who has fallen the last twice, and this race has often provided a close finish.

A better spread betting market to play with SpreadEx could be ‘Racecard No. 1s’.  Points are awarded based on the performance of horses that are number 1 on the racecard, with 25pts for a win, 10pts for a second place and 5pts for a third. ANNUAL REVIEW looks a likely improver on his hurdles debut for in-form Fergal O’Brien in the opener (1.00), EASTERLY is the outside of three in the 1.30 but will pick up points with a clear round, we have the favourite on our side in the 2.05, SORBET (2.40) was well beaten at Warwick last time but that was her first run since the spring and she probably resented being taken on for the lead. She could get an easy time of things up front today and the return to a right-handed track will suit this Market Rasen/Kempton winner. KILBREW BOY has solid claims in the 3.15 and the ex-Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained TIP TOP CAT makes his debut for Fergal O’Brien in the 3.50. a yard that does well at the first time of asking with new recruits. At the time of writing the market was trading at 47-50.

Recommendation: Buy RACECARD NO. 1s at Ludlow

LUDLOW 2.40

I’ve touched on this race in my general Ludlow preview (see above), highlighting the claims of SORBET, and it’s one of the best races of the day to attack from a punting perspective as two of the market leaders look up against it. EDINBURGH CASTLE, the current 2-1 favourite, was desperately difficult to win with when trained by Andrew Balding and he took his record for Jonjo O’Neill to 0-6 when mid-division at Epsom last time. He rarely finds much at the business end of his races after travelling well. LUCKY ROBIN, 6-1 in the SpreadEx fixed odds betting, could also be worth opposing. He tends to peak from July to September but is just one from 19 outside of this period and he could be about to go off the boil despite some good recent efforts. Again, thanks to the versatility of the SpreadEx website we have multiple options – selling them on the 50-25-10 spread index, opposing them in any match bets or supporting their opponents.

Recommendation: Oppose EDINBURGH CASTLE and LUCKY ROBIN in Ludlow 2.40

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00

Backing Andrew Balding-trained two-year-olds on their second career start is a go-to system of mine but they have a poor record in the month of October (just seven winners from 107 runners) and we saw another short-priced one – 10-11 favourite Antiphon – turned over at Kempton on Tuesday night. UPTON PARK is going to take a big chunk out of the market (11-4 in the SpreadEx fixed odds market at the time of writing) in this 8.6f novice contest and I want to take him on despite the promise of last month’s debut third at Ffos Las. Options to field against him include selling him in the 50-25-10 race market, opposing him in any match bets that SpreadEx are offering or by simply backing 4-1 shot FODEN, who will appreciate the ease in grade.

Recommendation: Oppose UPTON PARK in Wolverhampton 7.00

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