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Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis – Saturday October 23rd

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Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount turns his attention to the SpreadEx markets to find the best value fixed odds and spread bets for Saturday’s horse racing action.

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Andrew sided with Doncaster winners MOON DE VEGA and JIMI HENDRIX on Friday and successfully opposed FIDELIO VALLIS, who finished a 26-length fourth of five at Cheltenham. He has four recommended bets/trades at Cheltenham on Saturday:

Horse Racing Betting Tips for Saturday October 23rd

CHELTENHAM 1.45

This conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle usually goes to a rider who is claiming a weight allowance (those who have ridden more than 20 winners are not allowed to claim). In the past ten years, jockeys who were unable to claim have a combined record of 0-36, a stat that rules out all the runners bar SAMARRIVE, NORDIC COMBINED, BLACKO, SAMBA DANCER and BYZANTINE EMPIRE. Of these, the most interesting one is the ex-Ala King-trained BLACKO, who could outrun his odds on his first start for Evan Williams. He runs off a handicap mark of just 123, having been rated as high as 135 when starting as a 5-1 joint-favourite for the Fred Winter in 2020. His new yard’s sole runner here yesterday – Coole Cody – finished second to the favourite when 11-1 in a handicap hurdle and backing him each-way in the SpreadEx fixed odds betting or buying him on the spreads in the 50-30-20-10 market looks the play.

Recommendation: Back BLACKO in Cheltenham 1.45

CHELTENHAM 2.55

TRITONIC is clearly talented, landing his first two starts over hurdles, including the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton before his Triumph Hurdle fifth. However, Alan King’s four-year-old seems ideally served by a big field/strong pace scenario and if he’s going to be vulnerable it will be first time out in a small field/tactical affair. He can race keenly and there’s every chance that he’ll fail to settle today. At the time of writing he was trading as the 6-5 favourite but I expect him to lose market leader honours to Dan Skelton’s STEPNEY CAUSEWAY, who has a perfect five from five record when racing on left-handed tracks. I LIKE TO MOVE IT, who is three from three when racing below Class 1 level, also rates a dangerous rival and Tritonic looks a sell on the spreads with SreadEx this morning.

Recommendation: Oppose TRITONIC in Cheltenham 2.55

CHELTENHAM 3.30

This two-mile handicap chase looks a real belter and it’s hard to dismiss the claims of the market leaders. SKY PIRATE was a revelation last season after returning from wind surgery, recording form figures of 251121 (3-6), improving to 1121 (3-4) at today’s trip. The second place was no disgrace – he bumped into Allmankind in Grade 2 company at Warwick, a horse who can be desperately difficult to pass when he gets loose on the lead. Antepost gamble BEFORE MIDNIGHT (7-4 from 13-2 in places) also improved last season when cut back to two miles, winning an all-weather bumper and a Class 2 handicap chase at Chepstow. There could be plenty more to come. Backing ‘FAV’ in the ‘FAV OR RAG’ market in the SpreadEx fixed odds betting is the obvious angle.

Recommendation: Back ‘FAV’ in ‘FAV OR RAG’ market in Cheltenham 3.30

CHELTENHAM 4.05

Supporting 12-year-olds in handicap hurdles might not seem to be an obvious move but KANSAS CITY CHIEF could surprise in this Pertemps Qualifier. He was third at 18-1 in this race last year when racing towards the inside rail (the slowest part of the track) and he’s 6lb lower this time around. He had a spin over hurdles in Jersey last month and second time out has often been when to catch him. Plenty of his more-fancied rivals will be on a mission to qualify for the final of this series by finishing in the top six whereas Kansas City Chief will be all out to land the £13,000 first prize. An each-way approach in the SpreadEx fixed odds betting or a buy on the 50-30-20-10 spread market could pay dividends.

Recommendation: Back KANSAS CITY CHIEF in Cheltenham 4.05

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