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Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis – Friday November 12th

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Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount applies his stats-based methods to Friday’s SpreadEx markets to find the best value spread betting and fixed odds opportunities.

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Andrew successfully opposed 9-4 shot Dashing To You (third of seven) at Chelmsford on Thursday and was unlucky with late faller Heronord at Taunton. He has four recommended bets/trades on Friday:

Horse Racing Betting Tips for Friday November 12th

CHELTENHAM STARTING PRICES

Aggregate STARTING PRICES (SPs) could make up higher than the current SpreadEx offer (at the time of writing the market was set at 46-49) at Cheltenham today. The opening 20-runner conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle hasn’t thrown up as many surprise winners as you’d expect (though we did have a 40-1 shot score in 2013) but today’s finale – the 20-runner novices’ handicap hurdle – has a history of shocks, including 33-1 winners in the last two renewals. When I was a racecourse bookmaker at Cheltenham , this race was our chance to ‘get out’ on the day after usually losing a fortune on the Spot Thedifference in the Cross Country Chase. That 3m6f contest (3.30) has not been as easy to predict in recent years and also offers us hope of covering the SPs spread. There was a 22-1 winner last year and a 14-1 poke secured victory in 2017. Even the two-mile handicap chase (1.45) has thrown up a few ‘funny’ ones in recent years, including 25-1 Un Beau Roman in 2016.

Recommendation:Buy STARTING PRICES at Cheltenham

CHELTENHAM TRAINERS

In-form FERGAL O’BRIEN has shown a profit with his runners at Cheltenham’s November meeting, scoring with six of his 58 qualifiers (+£37.00). A further 19 horses finished second, third or fourth. In recent years his Friday runners have a 50% win/place strike-rate and with the yard in the ascendancy the SpreadEx FERGAL O’BRIEN quote of 18.75-20.25 could be worth a small buy today. Two of the yard’s runners are ridden by Paddy Brennan, who has the knack of riding winners at this meeting, often coming wide to look for the better ground.

Recommendation: Buy FERGAL O’BRIEN performance at Cheltenham

CHELTENHAM 1.10

Trainer D J JEFFREYS doesn’t send many runners to Cheltenham but they usually acquit themselves well. His three representatives at this meeting last year including 33-1 winner Lively Citizen and his three runners at the December meeting included a 5-2 winner and 7-1 runner-up. Today, he relies on ENEMENEMYNEMO who fits the profile of previous winners of the opening 2m5f conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. Seasonal debutants have a great record, with nine of the last ten winners returning from a break of at least 150 days. Backing all the break returners would have returned a profit of £34.08 (from 53 bets). This year, eight of the 20 runners are returning from a layoff, including Enemenemynemo who can be bought at 8 in the SpreadEx 50-30-20-10 market or backed each-way at 12-1 in the fixed odds betting.

Recommendation: Back ENEMENEMYNEMO in Cheltenham 1.10

CHELTENHAM 1.45

BUN DORAN starts the new campaign as a ten-year-old but he’s no back number and underwent wind surgery over the summer. This is his time of year and his full record in November or December reads 14312122175 (4-11). Those two out-of-the-frame efforts (seventh and fifth) came in Grade 2 races and his last run in a Class 2 handicap chase in November/December saw him run Magic Saint to a head off a mark of 150 at Newbury in 2019. He’s 10lb lower today and is a much bigger price than the re-opposing Magic Saint (11-1 compared to 11-4 in the SpreadEx fixed odds betting). Spread punters have the option of buying him at 8 in the 50-25-10 market.

Recommendation: Back BUN DORAN in Cheltenham 1.45

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