Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew’s stats-based picks are already showing a good profit this week and he has unearthed several angles for Wednesday’s racing.
Andrew struck with 6-1 Exeter scorer BRIEF TIMES on Tuesday and has five more selections for the horse racing on Wednesday November 3rd:
MUSSELBURGH 2.20
FIGHTFORTHEROSES (system – Ben Haslam, second run for the yard)
In-form Ben Haslam has a good record at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with eight of the 56 qualifiers since the beginning of 2014 for a profit of £46.84 to a £1 level stake at SP. FIGHTFORTHEROSES looked in need of the experience when a very modest 11-1 fourth of seven at Hexham on his stable debut last month and might do better in this lower grade.
Bet on FIGHTFORTHEROSES at SBK
CHEPSTOW 2.30
NOT AVAILABLE (system – Matt Sheppard, second run for the yard, handicap chases only, recent outing)
Matt Sheppard has a poor strike-rate at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers but they do much better second time out, especially those running in handicap chases after a recent outing (within 28 days). Since the start of 2009, seven of the 33 qualifiers have scored for a profit of £65.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. NOT AVAILABLE was always prominent when a 14-1 runner-up at Worcester on his stable debut last month and similar tactics could see him reward each-way support in the first-time cheekpieces.
MUSSELBURGH 3.20
THE FERRY MASTER (system – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
Sandy Thomson-trained runners tend to come to hand at this time of year and, since 2013, had we backed all of his winter runners (November 1st until the end of February) we would have won 82 of our 430 bets (19.1% strike-rate) and made a massive profit of £253.98 to the usual £1 stake. THE FERRY MASTER clearly appreciated the stiffer test of stamina when fourth in the Scottish Grand National on his final start last term and can make a winning reappearance in this 3m6f contest.
Bet on THE FERRY MASTER at SBK
NOTTINGHAM 4.10
REGULAR INCOME (system – sire Fast Company, soft/heavy ground)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company have a solid record on the Flat when given soft or heavy conditions, landing 91 of their 681 starts (13.4%) for a profit of £45.37 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s not a huge return given the number of runners (6.66% on turnover at SP) but many of them were well supported and had we taken the best offer the night before racing we’d have shown a profit of almost 40% on turnover. REGULAR INCOME flopped at Pontefract last month when a big gamble (4-1 from 14-1) on his debut for Paul Midgley but he was poorly drawn and is worth another chance on a track he likes (his record here reads 11437).
KEMPTON 5.45
CULTURE (system – Tom Ward switchers on the AW)
Tom Ward does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, especially on the all-weather. Four of the 13 qualifiers won for a profit of £22.50 and he also saddled three seconds (12-1, 3-1 and 9-4). CULTURE returns to Ward’s care after a fruitless spell with Jedd O’Keeffe and he’ll be much happier back at Kempton, the scene of his latest success, than at Newcastle where he beat only one home on his latest start.
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