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Why Kaka Is So Crucial To Milan, And Why Manchester City Want Him



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Manchester City have reportedly made an audacious transfer bid for Kaká believed to be in the region of £100 million.

It will be a tempting offer for AC Milan who signed the Brazilian in 2003 for US$8.5 million. Since joining the Italian giants, Kaká has missed only two of Milan’s 31 Big Four clashes in Serie A, and while the club has struggled at times over the past two seasons he has continued to impress.

In seasons 03/04, 04/05 and 07/08, Milan had a higher points per game with Kaka in the team than when he was absent. This season Kaka has missed four games, of which Milan have lost three. In 2006/07, when the Brazilian was named World Player of the Year, Milan had a ppg of 2.00 without Kaká compared to 1.75 when he was in the team, however of the 10 games he misses, none of the opposition sides finished higher than tenth.

Kaká also carried Milan to the Champions League that season (including three goals against Manchester United in the semi-final), finishing as the competition’s top-scorer.

Since the start of last season, Milan have increasingly relied on the Brazilian who has weighed in with 22 league goals from 44 starts (of which he played at least 60 minutes in 42 games).

When comparing the 42 games where Kaká has played at least an hour to the 14 remaining games, since the start of last season, Milan have:

• A ppg of 1.95 compared to 1.14
• Scored two or more goals 19 times (45%) compared to three times (21%)
• Won by two or more goals 12 times (29%) compared to once (7%)
• Kept 15 clean sheets (36%) compared to three clean sheets (21%)

Milan have also struggled to perform in first halves without their star player and have not been leading at the interval in any of their last 16 without him (W0-D11-L5, ppg = 0.69), going back to the last two games of the 06/07 season, despite 10 of the games being at the San Siro. In these 16 games they have scored a paltry three first half goals.

With Kaká in the side their first-half record is W16-D20-L6 (ppg = 1.62) since the start of last season with 33 goals scored.

These stats highlight how important Kaká is to Milan, although £100 million could give them the opportunity to rejuvenate their ageing squad throughout. If City could get their man and Kaká had a similar impact on their form as he had at Milan, than City’s new owners would probably feel justified in such an expensive acquisition.

Stats and research by Bettor Logic.