Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount has over 20 years experience in the industry and is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew has uncovered some fascinating stats-based picks for Saturday’s racing.
Andrew has been in good form this week and he has five selections at Aintree, Doncaster and Wincanton for racing on Saturday November 6th:
VIA SISTINA (system – jockey Jamie Spencer at Doncaster)
Patient tactics are usually what are needed at Doncaster, especially on the round course, and the forecast headwind makes today’s meeting the perfect vehicle for JAMIE SPENCER to showcase his skills. Since the start of 2014, had we bet all his mounts on Town Moor we’d have won 44 of our 229 bets (19.2% strike-rate) and made a profit of £52.15 to a £1 level stake at SP. He has three live chances today in VIA SISTINA (12.55), ORBAAN (1.25) and CALLING THE WIND (2.40), with the first-named providing his best opportunity.
SOUTH TERRACE (system – Dr Richard Newland, fancied runners in Pertemps Qualifiers)
Dr Richard Newland has won with four of his 26 runners in Pertemps Qualifiers, improving to four from six with those who started in the top four in the betting for a profit of £16.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. One of the beaten horses finished second at 6-1 and SOUTH TERRACE, priced at 5-1 at the time of writing, looks solid.
EDEN FLIGHT (systems – Venetia Williams first run after a win op & Venetia Williams handicap chasers in November)
Since wind operations have had to be declared from late January 2018, Venetia Williams is six from 16 with her chasers on their first start following the procedure and backing them blind would have yielded a profit of £20.75 to the usual £1 stake. We’re also at the time of year when her handicap chasers usually excel and had we backed them all during the month of November we’d be over £152 up this century. EDEN FLIGHT qualifies as a bet on both counts.
OFALLTHEGINJOINTS (system – Colin Tizzard chasers in first-time blinkers, 3m+)
In-form Colin Tizzard has a good record with his first-time blinkered chasers, especially those running over trips of three miles or further. Eleven of the 41 qualifiers have won for a profit of £66.58 to a £1 level stake at SP. OFALLTHEGINJOINTS should improve for a recent spin over hurdles and won at the second time of asking last season.
SHALLOW RIVER (system – Fergal O’Brien stable switchers)
Fergal O’Brien does well with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring at the first time of asking with 41 of the 240 qualifiers (17.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £15.76 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those running in chases or bumpers were 20 from 73 (27.4%) for a profit of £54.36 and SHALLOW RIVER, third at 20-1 in a Thurles bumper for Margaret Mullins on his only previous start, looks interesting on his stable debut.
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