Sweden and Tunisia meet in Group F at the 2026 World Cup on June 14, kicking off at 10:00 PM ET from Estadio BBVA in Monterrey. Sweden enter as narrow favorites at -107, with Tunisia available at +360 to take the points. Both sides need a strong start with the Netherlands and Japan also in the group.
Sweden’s route to this tournament was anything but straightforward. They finished bottom of their UEFA qualifying group, managing only two draws and four defeats before leveraging their Nations League ranking to earn a play-off berth. Back-to-back wins over Ukraine (3-1) and Poland (3-2) then secured their spot. Tunisia, by contrast, qualified through CAF with a perfect six wins from six, scoring 16 goals and conceding none. On paper, these are two sides arriving via very different paths.
Why This Game Matters
Group F contains the Netherlands and Japan alongside Sweden and Tunisia, making this opening fixture critical for both sides. A win here could separate a team from the bottom two and provide a platform for advancement, while a loss would demand results against stronger opponents later. Neither Sweden nor Tunisia have the depth of the Netherlands, so dropping points in this match could effectively end either side’s realistic hopes of reaching the knockout stage.
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Our Pick
Sweden to win, best available -107 at BetOnline and Lucky Rebel. Sweden carry the superior individual quality through Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak, and Tunisia’s recent warm-up defeats to Austria and Belgium suggest vulnerability against organized European sides.
Sweden vs Tunisia: Preview, Picks & Betting Odds
Sweden vs Tunisia betting odds make the Scandinavians clear favorites, a reflection of their forward line rather than their qualifying record. Graham Potter, appointed in late 2025, has quickly installed a 3-4-2-1 or 3-5-2 shape built on controlled possession and high wing-back positioning. Viktor Gyokeres (28, Arsenal) and Alexander Isak (26, Liverpool) give Sweden an attacking pairing that few Group F opponents can match for quality. Gyokeres scored 13 goals in recent international action and was decisive in both play-off wins. Isak brings movement and link play that draws defenders and creates space for those around him.
Tunisia under head coach Sabri Lamouchi, appointed in January 2026 after the Africa Cup of Nations elimination, set up in a compact 3-5-2 that prioritizes defensive shape and vertical transitions. Ellyes Skhiri (31, Eintracht Frankfurt) anchors the midfield with over 80 caps and provides the defensive coverage that allows Tunisia’s wing-backs to push forward. Their CAF qualifying record of six wins and a goal difference of +16 with a clean sheet in every game is impressive, though the opposition quality in that campaign was considerably lower than what awaits in Group F.
The Sweden vs Tunisia prediction hinges on whether Potter’s attackers can break down a disciplined North African defensive block. Tunisia’s warm-up results, including a 5-0 defeat to Belgium and a 1-0 loss to Austria, raise genuine questions about how that defensive structure holds against elite European pressing. Sweden’s physical press through Gyokeres and the directness of Anthony Elanga (24, Newcastle United) from wide areas could exploit any gaps left by Tunisia’s wing-backs when they push high.
Recent Form & Trends
Sweden’s last five competitive results:
- Poland (H): Won 3-2 – FIFA World Cup Qualification
- Ukraine (N): Won 3-1 – FIFA World Cup Qualification
- Slovenia (H): Drew 1-1 – FIFA World Cup Qualification
- Switzerland (A): Lost 1-4 – FIFA World Cup Qualification
- Kosovo (H): Lost 0-1 – FIFA World Cup Qualification
Sweden’s momentum comes entirely from those two play-off wins. Prior to that, they lost four of six qualifying matches, including a 4-1 hammering in Switzerland and back-to-back defeats to Kosovo. The wins over Ukraine and Poland carry weight, but both were knockout scenarios that can elevate performance beyond what a team produces routinely.
Tunisia’s last five results:
- Canada (A): Drew 0-0 – Friendly
- Haiti (N): Won 1-0 – Friendly
- Mali (N): Drew 1-1 – Africa Cup of Nations
- Tanzania (N): Drew 1-1 – Africa Cup of Nations
- Nigeria (N): Lost 2-3 – Africa Cup of Nations
Tunisia’s competitive record in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025 showed a side capable of conceding multiple goals when pushed into open play. The 3-2 loss to Nigeria and subsequent warm-up defeats to Belgium and Austria represent a more concerning recent picture than the CAF qualifying numbers alone would suggest.
Sweden vs Tunisia History & H2H Trends
Sweden and Tunisia have met four times in total, all friendlies. Sweden lead the head-to-head record with two wins, one draw, and one defeat. Their most recent meeting came in February 2003 when Tunisia won 1-0 on home soil. Before that, Sweden won 1-0 in Tunis in February 1999 and won again in April 1992. The only draw came in February 1976, also in Tunisia, finishing 1-1. All four matches were played on Tunisian soil, meaning there is no head-to-head data in a neutral-venue, competitive context. The historical record offers limited predictive value beyond confirming these are evenly matched in low-stakes settings.
Injuries, Suspensions & Roster News
Sweden’s squad has been officially announced. Alexander Isak arrives at the tournament having battled through an injury-interrupted club season at Liverpool following his high-profile transfer, though he retained a strong scoring record for the national team. Viktor Gyokeres is fit after his decisive contributions in the play-offs. Victor Lindelof (31, Aston Villa) brings defensive experience after a Europa League-winning season at club level. Sweden warmed up with a 2-2 draw against Greece and a 3-1 friendly loss to Norway, indicating the team remains in a building phase under Potter.
Tunisia’s squad has also been confirmed. Anis Ben Slimane (25, Norwich City) returns to the squad after injury problems in 2025, giving Lamouchi additional options in the advanced midfield role. Hannibal Mejbri (23, Burnley) is fit and expected to feature prominently, having scored in qualifying. The Tunisia squad contains experienced players across the backline and central midfield, with Montassar Talbi (28, Lorient) and Dylan Bronn (30, Servette) forming a settled defensive core. No significant absentees have been reported from either camp ahead of the Group F opener.
Expected Lineups
Sweden (3-5-2): Viktor Johansson; Gustaf Lagerbielke, Isak Hien, Victor Lindelof (c); Gabriel Gudmundsson, Mattias Svanberg, Jesper Karlstrom, Yasin Ayari, Hjalmar Ekdal; Viktor Gyokeres, Alexander Isak
Predicted XI – squad confirmed, starting formation subject to change.
Tunisia (3-5-2): Aymen Dahmen; Dylan Bronn, Montassar Talbi, Mortadha Ben Ouanes; Yan Valery, Ellyes Skhiri (c), Hannibal Mejbri, Anis Ben Slimane, Ali Abdi; Elias Achouri, Elias Saad
Predicted XI – squad confirmed, starting formation subject to change.
Key Matchup to Watch
The contest between Sweden’s front two and Tunisia’s back three will define the result. Gyokeres brings relentless pressure and physical dominance in the box, having scored 20 international goals in 33 caps. Isak offers diagonal runs and link play that pulls center-backs out of position. Against them, Talbi and Bronn have the aerial strength and positional discipline to absorb direct play, but Tunisia’s AFCON campaign showed they can be stretched when opponents press in transitions. If Gyokeres wins his physical duels and Isak finds pockets between the lines, Sweden’s attacking output should be enough to create multiple clear chances in this Sweden vs Tunisia World Cup 2026 fixture.
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Sweden to Win – Sweden vs Tunisia Best Bets
Sweden win @ -107 (BetOnline / Lucky Rebel). The combination of Gyokeres and Isak represents a genuine attacking threat that Tunisia have not faced at this level. Tunisia’s defensive record in CAF qualifying was built against opposition that does not compare to European play-off level, and warm-up results against Belgium and Austria exposed real vulnerabilities. At -107, Sweden’s win is priced closer to a coin-flip than a clear favorite, which represents reasonable value given the attacking quality they can deploy.
Over 2 Goals – Sweden vs Tunisia Score Prediction Angle
Over 2 Goals @ -141 (BetOnline / Lucky Rebel). Sweden scored three goals in each play-off match, and Tunisia conceded three against Nigeria in the Africa Cup of Nations. Both teams are expected to operate in an open, attacking shape with committed wing-backs. The over 2 goals line at -141 is priced aggressively, but the attacking profiles on both sides and Tunisia’s recent defensive fragility outside of CAF qualifying support this market.
Viktor Gyokeres Anytime Scorer
Viktor Gyokeres anytime scorer (check best available price at leading operators). Gyokeres has scored 20 international goals in 33 caps and was directly decisive in both World Cup play-off wins. His pressing-based game and box presence give him consistent chance-creation at set pieces and in transition. Against a Tunisia backline that has not been tested by forwards of his quality in competitive matches, he is Sweden’s most likely source of goals.
Betting Odds & Lines
Current match odds for Sweden vs Tunisia from approved operators are listed below. Sweden’s best available win price is -107, available at BetOnline and Lucky Rebel.
| Outcome | BetOnline | Lucky Rebel | BetNow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden Win | -107 | -107 | -110 |
| Draw | +245 | +245 | +245 |
| Tunisia Win | +338 | +338 | +330 |
How to Watch & Where to Bet
How to Watch
Sweden vs Tunisia kicks off at 10:00 PM ET on June 14, 2026 at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico. The match is broadcast live in the United States on Fox and Telemundo. Streaming options are available through the Fox Sports app and Peacock for eligible subscribers. International viewers can access coverage through their local rights holders including ITV and BBC in the UK, RTE in Ireland, TyC Sports in Argentina, Globo in Brazil, and CTV and TSN in Canada.
How to Bet
Follow these steps to place a bet on Sweden vs Tunisia at one of the approved operators listed above.
- Choose a licensed sportsbook from the operators listed in this article, such as BetOnline, Lucky Rebel, or BetNow.
- Navigate to the sportsbook’s website or download their mobile application.
- Create an account by providing the required personal details and completing identity verification.
- Make a deposit using your preferred payment method, including options such as credit card, bank transfer, or cryptocurrency where accepted.
- Navigate to the Soccer or World Cup 2026 section and locate the Sweden vs Tunisia Group F match.
- Select your preferred market, for example match result, total goals, or anytime scorer.
- Enter your stake amount and review the potential payout before confirming.
- Submit your bet slip and retain your confirmation for reference.
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