Use our Breeders’ Cup trends 2023 to find the best profile of past winners of three of the main races – the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Turf and Mile.
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Breeders’ Cup Trends: Key Stats For The Breeders’ Cup Classic, Mile and Turf
Put history on your side at the Breeders’ Cup this week with our key trends and stats for three of the biggest races on the Saturday – the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Breeders’ Cup Turf.
You can see the full 2023 Breeders’ Cup race time and running order here, plus some of the key Breeders’ Cup bankers ahead of the meeting dubbed the horse racing world championships.
Use the Breeders’ Cup trends to find the best profile of past winners and rule out horses that don’t fit the stats.
But note, the Breeders’ Cup is run at different tracks most years, so some of the gate stats and course form might have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
1:30 – FanDuel Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m ITV4
The key trends for the Breeders’ Cup Mile tell us that UK-based trainer Charlie Appleby has been the main man, winning the last two renewals.
He’s back again this year with Master Of The Seas for Godolphin, while the ‘boys in blue’ also have Mawj, who is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and comes here having won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland in October.
In fact, four of the last five winners of this race have been European-trained, with Aidan O’Brien winning in 2020 and Sir Michael Stoute in 2018.
Other key stats to note are 8 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 8-11 but note the different courses – which is a plus for Du Jour, Astronomer, Songline and Kelina.
We’ve seen five winning favorites in the last 10, while 13 of the last 19 winners were aged 4 or older – which would be a small negative for the fancied 3 year-olds Mawj and Kelina.
Finally, of the US stables, Mark Casse has won the pot twice in the last eight years and runs the big outsider Lucky Score.
Recent Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners
- 2022 – Modern Games
- 2021 – Space Blues
- 2020 – Order Of Australia
- 2019 – Uni
- 2018 – Expert Eye
- 2017 – World Approval
- 2016 – Tourist
- 2015 – Tepin
- 2014 – Karakontie
- 2013 – Wise Dan
Breeders´ Cup Mile Trends
- 19/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
- 18/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
- 18/19 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
- 16/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
- 13/19 – Aged 4 or older
- 13/19 – Had won a Group/Grade1 race before
- 11/19 – US-trained winners
- 10/19 – Winning favourites (including 5 of last 10)
- 8/19 – Drawn between stalls 8-11 (note, different tracks)
- 7/19 – Won last time out
- 4/19 – French-trained winners
- 4/19 – UK/IRE-trained winners
- Trainer Charlie Appleby & jockey William Buick have won the last 2 runnings
- Trainer Mark Casse has won 2 of the last 8 renewals
2:50 – Longines Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m4f ITV
Another Breeders’ Cup race with a strong European presence as the first four in the betting are UK, Irish and French-trained – in a contest they’ve won eight times in the last 10 years.
This season’s Epsom Derby winner, Auguste Rodin will be trying to give the Aidan O’Brien stable their fifth success in the race – they also have Broome and Bolshoi Ballet in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
It’s been a top race for Frankie Dettori too, with five successes over the years and he’s got another big chance with the recent Ascot Champion Stakes winner and Derby second King Of Steel.
Trainer John Gosden took the pot in 2018 with Enable and he’s also got a leading chance again this year with his 128-rated Mostahdaf, who will be fresher than some of the other European challengers after bypassing Ascot last time.
4 and 5 year-olds have the best record, with 14 of the last 19 winners, while 68% of those were also drawn 5 or higher, which might be a negative for Shahryar, Onesto, Gold Phoenix, Bolshoi Ballet.
Recent Breeders´Cup Turf Winners
- 2022 – Rebel’s Romance
- 2021 – Yibir
- 2020 – Tarnawa
- 2019 – Bricks And Mortar
- 2018 – Enable
- 2017 – Talismanic
- 2016 – Highland Reel
- 2015 – Found
- 2014 – Main Sequence
- 2013 – Magician
Breeders´Cup Turf Trends
- 18/19 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
- 18/19 – Had won at least 3 times before
- 17/19 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
- 16/19 – Had won a Group/Grade 1 before
- 15/19 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
- 14/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 14/19 – Had won over 1m4f before
- 14/19 – European-trained winners (8 of the last 10)
- 13/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher (note, different tracks)
- 12/19 – Placed favourites
- 9/19 – Won last time out
- 5/19 – US-trained winners
- 4/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 3/19 – Winning favourites
- Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 5 times
- 4 of the last 12 runnings went to trainer Aidan O’Brien
3:40 – Longines Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) 1m2f ITV
In contrast to the two other races featured, the Breeders’ Cup Classic is a contest the European runners have struggled to win. Their last success in the meeting’s biggest race was in 2008 when John Gosden won with Raven’s Pass.
Since then it’s been a US dominance, with the Bob Baffert barn mopping up four of the last 9 runnings too and he goes again with the likely Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite Arabian Knight, now Arcangelo has been scratched.
In the 39 past runnings, the 4 year-olds have the best records – winning 16. Plus, EVERY winner has been aged 5 or younger, which is a big negative for the runner from Japan, Ushba Tesoro at 6 years-old.
Also note horses that have won at least five times and with only three winning favorites in the last 19 runnings (53% unplaced), don’t be afraid to look down the market for the winner.
The last two winners came from gate four, so if you fancy a stalls trend three-timer – then back outsider Missed The Cut
Recent Breeders’ Cup Classic Winners
- 2022 – Flightline (4/9 fav)
- 2021 – Knicks Go (16/5)
- 2020 – Authentic (9/2)
- 2019 – Vino Rosso (4/1)
- 2018 – Accelerate (9/2)
- 2017 – Gun Runner (11/4)
- 2016 – Arrogate (7/4)
- 2015 – American Pharoah (4/6 fav)
- 2014 – Bayern (7/1)
- 2013 – Mucho Macho Man (4/1)
Breeders´Cup Classic Trends
- 19/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
- 19/19 – Had won over at least 9f before
- 19/19 – Raced in the last 9 weeks
- 18/19 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
- 18/19 – USA-trained winners
- 18/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/19 – Had won at least 5 times before
- 13/19 – Won last time out
- 13/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 10/19 – Unplaced favourites
- 7/19 – Had raced at Belmont Park last time out
- 3/19 – Winning favourites
- 4 of the last 9 winners were trained by Bob Baffert
- In the 39 runnings to date of the Breeders’ Cup Classic – 4 year-old horses have the best record – winning 16, while 3 year-olds have taken 13 and 5 year-olds have won 10.
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