Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website as well as an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV. He specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting.
Why a systems approach? Stats and betting systems help me to quickly identify which races I should be concentrating on when it comes to tipping. If I can use systems to find a weak favourite to oppose, then I’m halfway to finding a profitable bet.
Some Horse Racing Systems to Think About
For example, Kempton’s all-weather track strongly favours low-drawn runners and horses who win from low draws are often flattered. Opposing low-drawn winners on their next start is a profitable exercise and there was a good example at Chelmsford recently (12 September 2021) with Mutafawwig. He had won from stall 2 of 11 at Kempton on his previous run and was sent off as the 4-6 favourite for a competitive Class 2 handicap on the back of that victory. He finished fifth of the seven runners this time.
My database has a system named ‘Flattered Kempton Winners’ which automatically flags up any horses who won from stall 1 or stall 2 in a Kempton race of eight or more runners on their latest outing. Betting all the qualifiers since racing’s resumption last summer would yielded a loss of £83.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (starting price).
Many of these were short-priced favourites like Mutafawwig. I also have numerous positive angles regarding speed figures, draw, pace, breeding, age, time of year, trainers, jockeys, headgear and wind surgery etc. For instance, backing any progeny of the sire Milan on their first outing following a wind operation would have found 16 winners from 73 bets and returned a profit of £126.38 to a £1 level stake (+173% on turnover).
Some horses will qualify on multiple systems and these are often good bets, some races throw up positives about most of the field and these races are best left alone. In this column I will sift through the daily qualifiers and share the ones I regard as the strongest bets.
Fontwell
2.05 – MIDNIGHT JEWEL (system – Charlie Longsdon runners in September)
The Charlie Longsdon yard tends to get going early in the season and had we simply backed all of his runners during the month of September we would have found 55 winners from 216 bets (25.5% strike-rate) and made a profit of £67.77 to a £1 level stake at SP. MIDNIGHT JEWEL, who was perhaps unsuited by the track at Worcester when a beaten favourite on his latest outing, is taken to bounce back here.
3.40 – VORASHANN (system – Garry Moore-trained hurdlers in first-time blinkers)
Trainer Gary Moore has a solid record when using first-time blinkers on one of his hurdles, scoring with seven of the 25 qualifiers since 2012 (28% strike-rate) for a profit of £30.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. VORASHANN, a recent course winner under forcing tactics, could prove hard to catch in the headgear.
Redcar
1.10 – MACON BELLE (system – sire Due Diligence 2yos on third or later start)
Juvenile progeny of Due Diligence usually need at least a couple of runs before hitting peak form and it could pay to give MACON BELLE another chance despite his beaten-favourite effort at Catterick last month. Had we backed all of the sire’s two-year-olds on their third or subsequent starts we’d have found 15 winners from 98 bets (15% strike-rate) for a profit of £31.23 to a £1 level stake at SP.
4.20 – DESERT QUEST (system – 3yos in all-aged turf handicaps with best last-time out speed figure)
DESERT QUEST, a winner at Nottingham in July, clocked a fast time when doubling up at Hamilton the following month and can complete his hat-trick. Three-year-olds with the best last-time out speed figure have a solid record when taking on their elders in turf handicaps, including a nine from 28 Record at Redcar in the past five seasons (32% strike-rate) for a profit of £25.20 to the usual £1 stake.
Wolverhampton (AW)
7.20 – TRUMBLE (system – sire Power at Wolverhampton)
TRUMBLE is a qualifier on a simple breeding system and was available at double-figure odds at the time of writing. His sire, Power, does well with his runners at this venue, scoring with 17 of the 107 qualifiers (16% strike-rate) for a profit of £105.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. He disappointed at Chester last time but has been freshened up by an 81-day break.
8.20 – TWICE AS LIKELY (systems – William Buick riding for Richard Hughes / sire Tamayuz at Wolverhampton)
TWICE AS LIKELY was unfortunate not to win at Lingfield last time and will appreciate the return to Wolverhampton’s Tapeta surface. Younger progeny of Tamayuz (horses aged four or younger) have a solid record at this venue, winning 24 of their 117 starts (21% strike-rate) for a profit of £58.23 to a £1 level stake at SP. He also qualifies on a trainer/jockey angle – William Buick has a six from 24 record for Richard Hughes for a profit of £11.95.
Yarmouth
2.25 – BAILEYS ACCOLADE (system – Mark Johnston 2yo fillies making racecourse debut on turf/6f only)
Backing newcomers has its risks as we have no form to go on but Mark Johnston’s debutantes usually know their job. In the past five seasons had we bet all his first-time out two-year-old fillies on turf we would have won 27 of our 172 bets (15.7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £27.78 to a £1 level stake at SP. Over today’s 6f trip the strike-rate improves to 22.5% (11 winners from 49 qualifiers) for a profit of £46.70. Hollie Doyle is a good booking for BAILEYS ACCOLADE, the latest qualifier.
Bet on Baileys Accolade at SBK
4.30 – GRANDFATHER TOM (system – course expert)
GRANDFATHER TOM got involved in a fierce battle for the early lead in a £25,000 to the winner race on turf at Lingfield last time, helping to set the race up for the closers. The first five finishers all came from off the pace and he is easily forgiven his 40-1 last of nine. He won this race last year and has always run well at Yarmouth, finishing 2nd at 16-1, fourth at 18-1, winning at 6-1, second at 14-1 and scoring at 9-2 from is five previous visits.
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