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Kentucky Derby Trends To Help Find The Winner Of The 2022 Race

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Kentucky Derby Trends To Help Find The Winner Of The 2022 Race

It’s the first leg of the US Triple Crown this Saturday as a strong field line-up for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs racecourse. To help you find the winner of the Kentucky Derby we’ve got the key trends based on the last 10 winners. Use these stats to look for the best profiles of previous winning horses.

Kentucky Derby Trends and Stats

Help find the winner of the 2022 Kentucky Derby using our key trends and stats. For example, ALL of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners ran in the last seven weeks, while the Kentucky Derby favorite has a 60% strike-rate in the last 10 renewals.

  • 10/10 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
  • 10/10 – Drawn 5 or higher
  • 10/10 – Won by a US bred horse
  • 10/10 – Never won at Churchill Downs before
  • 9/10 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before
  • 9/10 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
  • 9/10 – Placed favorites
  • 8/10 – Won last time out
  • 7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
  • 7/10 – Won 3 or more times before
  • 6/10 – Had exactly 4 previous runs
  • 6/10 – Winning favorites
  • 5/10 – Drawn between 5-8 (inc)
  • 5/10 – Drawn between 13-19 (inc)
  • 3/10 – Came into the race unbeaten
  • 3/10 – Ran at Santa Anita last time out
  • 3/10 – Ran at Gulfstream Park last time out
  • 2/10 – Trained by Doug O’Neill
  • 2/10 – Ridden by John Velazquez

Top 2022 Kentucky Derby Horses Based On The Trends

We take a look at the top five horses in the 2022 Kentucky Derby betting and which of our main trends they fit

EPICENTER – This 3 year-old comes into the Saturday 7th May race at Churchill Downs racecourse having won three of his four starts and was very impressive in landing the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds at the end of March.

That win came over 1m 1 1/2f so the slight step up in trip here to 1m2f will be fine, but with all four career runs coming at Fair Grounds, those looking to take him on might look to the fact he’s yet to race away from the New Orleans-based track.

Trainer Steve Asmussen will be hoping to land the Kentucky Derby for the first time, but Epicenter’s regular jockey – Joel Rosario – is no stranger to winning the Kentucky Derby, having ridden Orb to victory in 2013.

  • 10/10 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
  • 10/10 – Won by a US bred horse
  • 9/10 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before
  • 9/10 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
  • 9/10 – Placed favorites
  • 8/10 – Won last time out
  • 7/10 – Won 3 or more times before
  • 6/10 – Had exactly 4 previous runs
  • 6/10 – Winning favorites

ZANDON – Surprisingly the Kentucky Derby is a race that has so far eluded trainer Chad C Brown, but he’s got a good chance of putting that right in 2022 with Zandon. This 3 year-old was a good winner at Keeneland last time out on the Grade One Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – winning going away over 1m1f to suggest the extra furlong here is a plus.

  • 10/10 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
  • 10/10 – Drawn 5 or higher
  • 10/10 – Won by a US bred horse 
  • 9/10 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before
  • 9/10 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
  • 9/10 – Placed favorites
  • 8/10 – Won last time out
  • 7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
  • 6/10 – Winning favorites

WHITE ABARRIO –Trained by Saffie A Joseph, who is yet to win the Kentucky Derby, this 3 year-old comes into the race with 4 wins from his five stats. The last of those successes came the Grade One Florida Derby on 2nd April at Gulfstream Park, while being one of the more experienced runners in the field will have this as an advantage.

However, the negative might be that he’s raced at Churchill Downs once before (Nov 21) and that resulted in a 6 length defeat (3rd).

  • 10/10 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
  • 10/10 – Drawn 5 or higher
  • 10/10 – Won by a US bred horse
  • 10/10 – Never won at Churchill Downs before
  • 9/10 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
  • 8/10 – Won last time out
  • 7/10 – Won 3 or more times before
  • 5/10 – Drawn between 13-19 (inc)
  • 3/10 – Ran at Gulfstream Park last time out

TAIBA – Unbeaten from two runs, with the most recent a smooth 2 ¼ length win in the Santa Anita Derby on 9th April. Will be looking to give his trainer Tim Yakteen a first Kentucky Derby win.

  • 10/10 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
  • 10/10 – Drawn 5 or higher
  • 10/10 – Won by a US bred horse
  • 9/10 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before
  • 9/10 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
  • 8/10 – Won last time out
  • 7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
  • 3/10 – Came into the race unbeaten
  • 3/10 – Ran at Santa Anita last time out

MO DONEGAL – From the powerful Todd Pletcher team, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2017 and 2010, so certainly know what’s required to land this lucrative pot. This 3 year-old colt heads into the race having won the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct in early April, but only had a neck in-hand on Early Voting that day, who could also run in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

  • 10/10 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
  • 10/10 – Won by a US bred horse
  • 9/10 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before
  • 9/10 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
  • 8/10 – Won last time out
  • 7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
  • 7/10 – Won 3 or more times before
  • 6/10 – Had exactly 4 previous runs

Watch Mandaloun Winning The 2021 Kentucky Derby

 Recent Winners Of The Kentucky Derby

  • 2021 – MANDALOUN (269/10)
  • 2020 – AUTHENTIC (84/10)
  • 2019 – COUNTRY HOUSE (65/1)
  • 2018 – JUSTIFY (29/10 fav)
  • 2017 – ALWAYS DREAMING (47/10 fav)
  • 2016 – NYQUIST (23/10 fav)
  • 2015 – AMERICAN PHAROAH (29/10 fav)
  • 2014 – CALIFORNIA CHROME (5/2 fav)
  • 2013 – ORB (11/2 fav)
  • 2012 – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (153/10)
  • 2011 – ANIMAL KINGDOM (209/10)
  • 2010 – SUPER SAVER (8/1)
  • 2009 – MINE THAT BIRD (51/1)
  • 2008 – BIG BROWN (12/5 fav)
  • 2007 – STREET SENSE (49/10 fav)
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