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Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis – Thursday November 18th

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Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount analyses Thursday’s SpreadEx markets to find the best value spread betting and fixed odds opportunities.

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Andrew’s sell of RACECARD No.1s at Warwick yielded a good profit on Wednesday when the market, set at 38-41, made up at just 15. He has three more suggested bets/trades on Thursday:

Horse Racing Betting Tips for Thursday November 18th

WINCANTON 3.15

Trainer FERGAL O’BRIEN remains in fantastic form, with Hidden Beauty’s smooth success in a Ffos Las bumper yesterday making it four winners in a row. He’s operating at a 25% strike-rate in the past fortnight (12 winners from 48 runners) and 50% of his beaten horses ran second or third. Stable jockey PADDY BRENNAN heads to Wincanton for two rides, with GOLDEN TAIPAN (3.15) looking the best of them. The seven-year-old broke his chase duck at Ludlow last time, a track that takes some jumping since the new fences were introduced, and he ran second art 14-1 in this novices’ limited handicap chase 12 months ago. He’s 2lb lower this time around and the horse who beat him that day – Tamaroc Du Mathan – finishing second to the brilliant Shiskin on his next start before landing a Grade 2 novices’ chase at Kempton. He’s no 14-1 shot this year (Spread offer 5-1 in their fixed odds betting) but looks the value against the Paul Nicholls-trained THYME WHITE, who can race keenly and seems happiest given a big field/strong pace scenario.

Recommendation: Back GOLDEN TAIPAN in Wincanton 3.15

 

WINCANTON 3.50

ASCOT DAY’s chance is far from obvious in this novices’ handicap hurdle confined to conditional and amateur jockeys (3.50) but there’s an argument to suggest he’s overpriced at the early 33-1 with SpreadEx. His last-time out Stratford defeat can be excused as he was ridden patiently on a track that is rarely kind to such tactics and, like most previous winners of this race, has a conditional rider rather than an amateur on board. He’s best coming late off a strong gallop and there’s enough early pace among his rivals to suggest that the race will be run to suit.

Recommendation: Back ASCOT DAY in Wincanton 3.50

WINCANTON RACECARD No.1s

Having already fielded against THYME WHITE, number 1 on the racecard in Wincanton’s 3.15 (see above), I’ve had a closer look at the other No.1s and there are doubts about plenty of them. GROSVENOR COURT (1.15) has to concede weight all round, COOL STONE (1.45) failed to settle in both previous outings and might do so again on her seasonal debut, BUTTERWICK BROOK’s (2.45) best efforts have come on heavy going and PELORIC’s (3.50) yard is struggling for winners. Sell with SpreadEx is the recommendation (the market is set at 72-76).

Recommendation: Sell RACECARD No.1s at Wincanton

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