Europe’s top five leagues: Who will be champions?


CIES Football Observatory has presented a predictive analysis of the final rankings of the top five European leagues. The research group has made the prediction based on a multivariate statistical model taking into account the offensive and defensive performances of big-5 league teams until the 31st of December 2016.

According to CIES, four of the five current leaders in the big five European leagues are the most likely champions. That means Chelsea will win the Premier League; Real Madrid will be crowned La Liga champions; Bayern Munich will win the Bundesliga and Juventus will win the Scudetto for the sixth time. However, in the French Ligue 1, PSG’s hegemony will end, as Monaco should dethrone them to win the competition.

Premier League: Chelsea are five points above second-placed Liverpool in the Premier League, but only eight points are separating the top five sides. Manchester United are only three points behind fourth-placed Man City, but according to CIES, the Red Devils won’t be able to rank higher than sixth.

Top four: Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal.

La Liga: Real Madrid have taken a healthy lead in the La Liga this season under Zinedine Zidane, leading five points clear of arch-rivals Barcelona. The lead could extend to eight points if Real Madrid win their game in hand. Sevilla have emerged as a surprise contender for the title this season, and it will be a great achievement for Jorge Sampaoli’s side if they finish above Barcelona.

Top four: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Atletico Madrid

Serie A: Juventus may not have looked invincible this season, but they have made full use of the slip ups from other rivals. The Bianconeri are leading Roma by four points, and the gap could extend to seven if Juventus win their game in hand. Inter are likely to finish in fifth, while cross town rivals AC Milan will downgrade to seventh position.

Top four: Juventus, Roma, Napoli, Lazio

Bundesliga: Bayern have recovered from an early stuttering start and are leading the league by three points. RB Leipzig are their closest challengers, but CIES predicts that Bayern will retain their domestic crown. Meanwhile, Hamburg could be relegated for the first time in its history.

Top four: Bayern, Leipzig, Dortmund, Frankfurt

Ligue 1: Only eight points separate the top four sides in the French league this season. Monaco are two points behind Nice, but they are predicted to win the title.

Top four: Monaco, PSG, Nice, Lyon

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