Luis Suarez is going to leave Liverpool in the coming days and weeks, that much almost set in stone but where he goes is far from that, though Arsenal are clear favourites there is certainly much to be considered before this transfer can happen.
Liverpool is not Man City
Regardless of the reputation and history of the club, in the here and now, Liverpool can not afford to keep Suarez. They are not Manchester City who could sit back and let Carlos Tevez fester on the bench while still paying his astronomical wages, they can’t have an asset of that value not being used.
Not to mention the depreciation, this time next year, after a season of sitting in the reserves, Suarez is worth £15 million, tops.
So theoretically, with still paying his wages, image rights etc. and the depreciation, not selling Suarez could cost them £1 million a week, a sum that John W. Henry will not be too keen on seeing evaporate off his balance sheets.
Only Arsenal is interested
Liverpool’s valuation of Suarez is said to be closer to £55 million – not the £40 million that Arsenal have offered so far – though the Gunners may come back for one more slice of the cake, it won’t be that high.
The problem is because Arsenal are the only ones in the market for a player with the credibility and talent of Luis Suarez, Liverpool are struggling to push up the price through competition for his signature.
I don’t buy the beliefs that a lot of clubs are simply not interested in Suarez because of his actions with Patrice Evra and Branislav Ivanovic in recent years, for me that isn’t the reason behind a lack of interest in his signature.
The problem is most of the big clubs have already done their business or have ear-marked funds for other, more priority targets.
Liverpool may lose £500m+ by selling Suarez
Along with Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal are perhaps the biggest competition Liverpool have of rekindling their love-affair with the Champions League in the coming seasons.
Giving Arsenal a player that would all but seal their place in the top four over the next few seasons all but destroys that ambition; selling Suarez to Arsenal is all but an admittance that they won’t be challenging for Champions League football in the near future.
Champions League revenue is what Liverpool need to get back, estimated to be worth £50 million a season, the Anfield club could see those financial hopes dashed and be left in limbo until Suarez moans to Arsenal in a few years and is let go once again.
The added problem with this is what the signing would mean to Arsenal, a club lacking star players and believed to be lacking the ‘want’ to pay big wages and big fees to secure the best players in the world.
If Luis Suarez joins Arsenal, I see them spending more, becoming a force they once used to be over the next couple of seasons. The two Manchester clubs and Chelsea will be making up the top-three for a few years to come and if Arsenal were to make that statement, the top-four is almost nailed on for the next decade.
In which case the cost of selling Suarez could run upwards of £500 million.
Not the time to sell
Clubs around the world have already done the big business, with the exception of Gareth Bale and Wayne Rooney, the clubs that have the money to spend have already filled Luis Suarez’s position.
Edinson Cavani, Radamel Falcao, Neymar and Gonzalo Higuain have all moved and followed the money-train, though Real Madrid seem a bit light upfront it appears Cristiano Ronaldo will be pushed in to a striker’s role to allow Bale to fit in – if that transfer goes through.
Apart from the Emirates outfit, only Bayern Munich seem to be looking around for a striker, though you couldn’t say they need a striker, Suarez would be an ideal player to add to their ranks. The issue there lies with Pep Guardiola, can you really see him wanting to deal with a handful of a player? I cant.
Talk of a return to Manchester United for Ronaldo could push through a bid from Real Madrid for Suarez’s services but that’s a big if and one that is several weeks away at present.
It is the wrong time to sell a big money striker, especially one with a tarnished reputation and that could play right in to the hands of Arsene Wenger.
He isn’t worth as much as Bale
Though Brendan Rodgers has said to the contrary in the recent press releases, Suarez isn’t worth as much money as Gareth Bale.
On paper you could argue my point but unfortunately football is played on grass, so I will bat back to you that if Suarez never took a chunk out of a Chelsea player, if he was never involved in the Evra debacle and if he hadn’t have taken his first club to caught to force through a move to Ajax several years ago, he still wouldn’t be worth the cost of Bale.
Not because he isn’t a better player, I for one think Bale is massively overrated, three years ago Spurs were trying to send him out on loan because he couldn’t win a game in their white shirts and the amount of times he has been caught diving since is ridiculous.
I actually think Suarez is a better player but the football market is fickle, Bale is a brand, Bale is a role model and Bale is a world record signing, not because he is that good but because he has all the attributes to be just that.
Real Madrid is a cash-cow, they buy players not only for their talent but for the money they will make the club.
Think of it like the David Beckham transfer from United to Madrid all those years ago, Real would have been more than happy paying £85 million for him, not because of his talent on the pitch (which was on the decline) but because of what David represented on and off it and the difference that would make to Real’s global appeal.
Bale isn’t at Beckham’s level yet but he has the ability to do just that, that’s why the cost is so high. Maybe Real Madrid think its time to tackle the Welsh football circuit.
Luis Suarez doesn’t and so, isn’t worth anywhere near the world record fee set to be paid in to the coffers at White Hart Lane.
Danny Chapman is an Arsenal fan, season ticket holder and blogger for Fusbwalin and Football Manager.
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