What Does EV Mean in Betting – How Does Expected Value Work in Betting?

In sports betting, the term EV means Expected Value – measuring the difference between the bookmaker’s probability of a betting outcome and a bettor’s perceived probability. The aim being to place bets with a larger chance of winning than the odds offered by a sportsbook.

However, to really understand ‘what does EV mean in betting?’, we’ll need to examine some EV strategies and explain several simple mathematical formulas behind it, along with listing the key pros and cons.

What is Expected Value (EV) in Betting?

Expected Value sports betting is a strategy when the bettor takes bigger odds than the probability actually suggests. A coin toss is an ideal example for explaining how EV betting works:

The only possible outcomes of a coin toss are two: heads or tails. Each outcome has an actual probability of 50% or +100. However, if a bookmaker assigns heads +120 and tails -120, the probabilities would change to 45.5% and 54.5%, respectively.

The actual probability for a tails outcome is 50%, not 45.5%. This means that 45.5% is lower than the actual probability, giving it a positive EV value. In contrast, 54.5% probability for a heads outcome is higher than the actual 50%, giving it a negative EV value. EV sports betting follows the same principle.

How Does EV Work in Sports Betting?

Online sports betting is all about probabilities, and understanding the ins and outs of the basic math behind it is essential to your success. Expected Value sports betting can help you do that. Moreover, it is one of the strongest fundamental strategies in sports betting.

In the online sports betting market, the number of users is expected to amount to 49.3 million by 2027. Unfortunately, few sports bettors have heard of positive EV betting, and fewer still understand how it works.

Expected Value in betting is not as straightforward as the earlier coin toss example. This is because probability in online sports betting is subjective and depends on a huge amount of data. Nevertheless, the main EV principle doesn’t change.

EV sports betting involves making your own odds for a bet’s outcomes and comparing them with the bookmaker’s odds. Ideally, your calculated odds should be as close to the actual odds as possible for an accurate expected value. Lower odds than the bookmaker’s usually mean a positive expected value, simply referred to as +EV betting.

Sharp bettors use various strategies to calculate their own odds. The easiest and most popular involves tracking bookmakers’ early betting lines (ideally immediately after they are released) and observing how they change. The logic behind it is simple: the earliest lines are usually close to the actual odds, but they change over time based on various data, such as the volumes of bets placed.

Alternatively, you can do your own in-depth research and try to estimate the actual odds based on various data. This may seem complicated, but data analysis technology can help.

You can also use EV betting in all sports, whether it’s when evaluating some NFL picks or doing some NBA betting. Most markets can also be used when performing EV betting, from moneyline odds to first goalscorer odds in soccer – the key is always research and knowing if your numbers and data are ahead of the bookies. It can also pay to research some less popular sports to find angles and information not many other bettors and bookies will know about – this can even be checking the weather ahead of making golf picks in a tournament. Simply knowing which conditions will suit different players remains key, and thus if there is any Expected Value in the betting market. Similarly, knowing the weather ahead of sports like cricket when the draw can come into play should plenty of rain be forecast, also brings EV bettors into the equation,

Why is EV Important?

Expected Value is one of the strongest long-term sports betting strategies. Overall, positive EV bets are reliable most of the time, creating a higher potential for returns than the underlying risks. This means that you will win more bets than you will lose, resulting in a net profit in the long term. The main idea behind +EV gambling is to find many positive EV bets to grow your long-term profits.

How to Calculate Expected Value in Betting

Calculating the Expected Value in betting is relatively easy when you know how. The math is based on the following factors:

• Probability of Winning: This is your calculated probability of an outcome’s likelihood of winning (not the bookmaker’s assigned probability).
• Probability of Losing: This should also be your calculated probability of an outcome’s likelihood of losing. It is usually the balance of the probability of winning in sports involving only two teams or opponents.
• Potential Payout: This is the amount you expect to win based on the bookmaker’s assigned odds and your stake size (the net profit).
• Amount Wagered: This is the amount staked on the bet.

Based on this data, the formula for an EV calculation for Expected Value works as follows:

EV = (Probability of Winning X Potential Payout) – (Probability of Losing X Amount Wagered)

You may also need to learn the formula for converting American betting odds into probabilities to use the EV formula. There are two formulas, depending on whether the odds are positive or negative:

• Positive Odds Formula: (100 ÷ (Odds + 100)) X 100
• Negative Odds Formula: Odds ÷ (Odds + 100) X 100

However, you must turn the negative value to positive when calculating the probability for negative odds. Here are examples based on two hypothetical odds:

• +250: EV = (100 ÷ (250 + 100) X 100) = 28.5%
• -250: EV = (250 ÷ (250 + 100) X 100) = 71.4%

Now consider the following odds set by a bookmaker on an English soccer game between Arsenal and Manchester United:

Now suppose that you calculate your own odds and probabilities for the same game and find the following numbers:

Considering a wager of $100, your winnings for a bet on Manchester United would be $200, giving you a potential payout of $100. You can now calculate the betting EV for this game as follows based on the data above:

EV = (0.6 X 100) – (0.44 X 100) = $16

This means that you can make about $16 for every $100 staked on Manchester United. The Expected Value is positive, making this a good bet. Overall, Manchester United is a good bet (even before calculating the Expected Value), considering that your calculated odds are lower than the bookmaker’s.

How Does Vig Play a Role When Determining EV?

Vig is a short form for vigorish, which is the bookmaker’s fee for every betting market. Based on the example between Arsenal and Manchester United, the total probability adds up to (54.5% + 50%) 104.5%. The actual probability should be 100%, so the extra 4.5% is the bookie’s fee. Betting EV requires you to account for this discrepancy by “covering the Vig.”

Overall, the Vig makes it difficult to calculate a betting market’s true odds, making EV sports betting inconsistent. As such, you need to cover the Vig by finding discrepancies in the odds – the discrepancies should be equal or close to the Vig for better accuracy.

Expected Value (EV) Betting Strategy

Expected Value sports betting works well when used with a reliable strategy. EV strategies vary and usually incorporate multiple betting tips. Here is an overview of seven efficient +EV betting tips for a comprehensive EV betting strategy:

• Look for Early Odds – A bet’s EV is usually more accurate when based on the bookmaker’s original odds because they may be closer to the game’s actual odds. As such, look for early odds, ideally immediately after the betting markets go live. You can take a look at the odds at the Reddit best online sportsbooks.

• Watch & Track the Betting Lines – Bookmakers regularly adjust their original odds and betting lines, as explained. +EV betting requires patience as you must track changes in the bookmaker’s lines from the time when they go live up until the game starts. The objective is to find betting markets with the biggest changes in odds and betting lines a few hours before the game, but try to avoid short-priced favorites with decreasing odds.

• Use Different Sites – Odds from different sports betting sites can differ considerably, sometimes by as much as 20%. Professional bettors use the sharpest sportsbooks to find the best odds. As such, compare the odds from different betting sites as soon as the betting markets go live to find the most lucrative positive EV bets. Try the best live sports betting sites to compare odds.

• Don’t Bet on Your Team – Your loyalty to the team and other emotions shouldn’t cloud your judgment. In fact, taking all emotions out of betting is crucial to success. To this end, you should bet against your favorite team if it is likely to lose and has a negative EV value. You can find out more about evenly-matched events via our PK betting guide.

• Don’t Always Bet the Favorite – The favorites – or ‘betting the chalk‘ are chosen for a reason, having said that, plenty of favorites lose, too. Therefore it is important to stick to your EV strategy and do the math yourself. Don’t assume just because a team has a bigger public profile or are more fashionable that they are going to win.

• Use Odds Boosts – Besides finding betting sites with the best promos and odds for +EV gambling, you can also increase your odds by using odds boosts. Essentially, odds boosts are intentionally inflated odds offered as a promotion. You can also boost your odds by making accumulator positive EV bets. You can also claim other offers that can help reduce your risks. For example, you can use risk-free bets to protect your wagers when betting on longshots.

• Don’t Always Bet – The thrill of making a sports bet means you could be tempted to try your luck on every bet. However, winning every bet is virtually impossible, and some betting markets are more unpredictable than others. To this end, it would be prudent to pace yourself and avoid betting on every market available – ideally, you should wait until the best +EV gambling opportunities emerge. Remember when taking part in any form of EV betting to always gamble responsibly.

Pros & Cons of EV in Betting

Using Expected Value in betting has many advantages over other popular betting strategies. However, no betting strategy is 100% efficient, and betting EV has a few drawbacks. Here is an overview of the main pros and cons of positive EV betting.

Overall, Expected Value bets offer more advantages than disadvantages. To this end, you only need a reliable EV betting strategy to stay profitable.

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