The Welsh Grand National is another big festive horse race to look forward to, but what are the main 2022 Welsh Grand National trends to look for ahead of the big Chepstow race?
For example, 80% of the last 20 Welsh Grand National winners carried 11st or less in weight – you can use our key Welsh Grand National trends below to whittle down the final 2022 runners and find the best profile based on past winners of the Welsh Grand National.
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Welsh Grand National Trends & Kempton Betting Stats
See our key 2022 Welsh Grand National trends to apply to the final runners ahead of the big Christmas race at Chepstow races (2:50pm).
Welsh Grand National Trends
- 20/20 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
- 20/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
- 20/20 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
- 18/20 – Aged 9 or younger
- 18/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
- 16/20 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
- 15/20 – Aged 8 or younger
- 14/20 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
- 14/20 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 12/20 – Irish bred
- 12/20 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
- 11/20 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
- 9/20 – Won last time out
- 7/20 – Unplaced favourites
- 7/20 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
- 6/20 – French bred
- 6/20 – Had run in the Welsh National before
- 4/20 – Winning favourites
- 2/20 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
- 2/20 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
- 2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- Trainers Venetia Williams and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the Welsh Grand National twice each
- The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 9/1
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What Date & Time Is The 2022 Welsh Grand National
📅Time/Date: 2:50pm / Tuesday 27th Dec 2022
🏇Racecourse: Chepstow (3m 6 1/2f)
💰 Purse/Winner: £85,425
📺 TV: ITV / Sky Racing
2022 Welsh Grand National Trends for Chepstow Race
Use our Coral Welsh Grand National Trends to find the best winning profile of past winners. Apply these stats to the 2022 Welsh Grand National runners to see which horses have the best chance of winning based on history.
ALL Of the Last 20 Welsh National Winners Had Raced In The Last 7 Weeks, Won Between 1-5 Chase Races over at Least 3m
With a 100% return in the last 20 runnings of the Welsh National, then the first place to start is to look for horses that ran within the last 7 weeks, had won a chase race over 3m+ in the past and also between 1-5 wins over the bigger obstacles.
Yes, these three Welsh Grand National trends combined will see a lot of horses with pluses, but it’s still a good place to begin your search for the 2022 Welsh Grand National winner. If running, some that fall down here are Movethechains and Nearly Perfect.
Do Past Welsh Grand National Winners Have a Good Record?
Iwilldoit won the 2021 Coral Welsh Grand National – but how have the current champions fared?
Well, we’ve not had a back-to-back Welsh Grand National winner since Bonanza Boy took the prize in 1988 and 1989. However, we did see the Richard Lee-trained Mountainous win the festival National showpiece in 2013 and 2015.
However, Iwilldoit, was pulled from the race in the build-up so won’t be running in the 2022 Welsh Grand National this year.
30% Of the Last 20 Welsh Grand National Winners Had Run In The Race Before
It’s also worth noting horses that had run in the race in general before. Not just the winners, but those that have tasted the conditions of this race in the past. Notable runners that have run in the Welsh National before are The Big Dog, The Two Amigos and Truckers Lodge.
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Look For Welsh Grand National Runners Aged 9 Or Younger
The age cut-off point with regards to recent winners of the Welsh Grand National is 9 years-old as 90% of the last 20 winners ticked this stat. The bad news here though is that most will fit the bill, but at this stage the likes of The Two Amigos, Truckers Lodge and Cyclop are all aged in double-figures.
How Have the Welsh Grand National Favourites Done Recently?
Not too badly in more recent times, considering the competitive native of the race. Since 2016, we’ve actually had three winning Welsh Grand National favourites – Secret Reprieve (2021), Elegant Escape (2018) and Native River (2016).
However, prior to this good run of the market leader there was only one more winning favourite in the last 20 runnings, meaning 20% of the last 20 favourites have won.
70% Of the Last 20 Welsh National Winners Returned 10/1 or Shorter
We’ve also seen 7 of the last 20 Welsh National favourites unplaced, while you don’t have to look too far down the betting to see find the Welsh Grand National winner with 70% of the last 20 returning 10/1 or shorter in the betting.
Winning Form Over Fences at Chepstow a Plus
55% of the last 20 renewals saw winners that had won over fences at Chepstow in the past too, so proven experience at the Welsh track is certainly another thing to look for. Despite there being a fair few past course winners entered, some of the more-fancied runners will have this stat to overcome – like Quick Wave, The Galloping Bear, Ask Me Early and The Big Dog who are all yet to win at the course.
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80% Of the Last 20 Welsh National Winners Carried 11st Or Less
Next up is to look at the weight carried as 80% of the last (16/20) Welsh Grand National winners had 11st or less on their backs. Plus, you can take this weight stat a bit further with 14 of the last 20 winners having 10st 8lbs or less.
These weight stats are pluses for most of the main players – Quick Wave, The Galloping Bear, Ask Me Early & Pats Fancy.
Look For a Top Four Finish In Their Last Race
This is another big Welsh Grand National trend to note, with 80% of the last 20 winners having finished in the top four last time out. Looking at the likely runners, several will get the thumbs up here but one that doesn’t is Pats Fancy.
45% Of the Last 20 Welsh Grand National Winners Won Last Time Out
Leading on from the last ‘top four’ trend, is to also note horses that won their last outing. Just under half of the last 20 winners had come into the race off the back of a win – this will be a plus for Quick Wave, The Galloping Bear and The Big Dog.
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Who are The Welsh Grand National Trainers To Note?
In the last three years we’ve had a Welsh dominance with the Christian Williams, Evan Williams and Sam Thomas yards winning the race and before that it was the Tizzard camp that did well – winning the race in 2016 and 2018.
However, prior to that we’ve had a lot of trainers winning the race twice – like Venetia Williams (2000 & 2014), Jonjo O’Neill (2002 & 2010), Paul Nicholls (2004 and 2005) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1997 and 2003), who won the race with his two Aintree Grand National winners – Binderee and Earth Summit.
Paul Nicholls has the 2021 Welsh Grand National third in the race – Truckers Lodge. While Jonjo O’Neill could run his former Midlands National winner Time To Get Up and Twiston-Davies has Fantastikas.
Therefore, anything this bunch mentioned run has to be respected and with the Venetia Williams yard having one of the big fancies in Quick Wave, who was a nice winner of the London National at Sandown earlier this month.
RELATED: Welsh Grand National 2022 runners guide – Get the lowdown on every horse running at Chesptow.
Welsh Grand National 2022 Betting & Key Runners
See below the latest betting odds ahead of the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Tuesday 27th December 2022.
| Welsh Grand National Horse | Latest Odds | Bookmaker |
| QUICK WAVE | 4/1 |  |
| ASK ME EARLY | 11/2 | |
| THE GALLOPING BEAR | 6/1 | |
| THE BIG DOG | 6/1 | |
| THE BIG BREAKAWAY | 12/1 | |
| FORTESCUE | 12/1 | |
| TRUCKERS LODGE | 14/1 | |
| MOVETHECHAINS | 14/1 | |
| MUSICAL SLAVE | 16/1 | |
| REGINA DRACONES | 18/1 | |
All odds correct as of 27th Dec 2022 and subject to change – others on request.
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Recent Welsh Grand National Winners
- 2021 – IWILLDOIT (13/2)
- 2020 – SECRET REPRIEVE (5/2 fav)
- 2019 – POTTERS CORNER (8/1)
- 2018 – ELEGANT ESCAPE (3/1 fav)
- 2017 – RAZ DE MAREE (16/1)
- 2016 – NATIVE RIVER (11/4 fav)
- 2015 – MOUNTAINOUS (9/1)
- 2014 – EMPEROR’S CHOICE (9/1)
- 2013 – MOUNTAINOUS (20/1)
- 2012 – MONBEG DUDE (10/1)
WATCH: Iwilldoit Winning The 2021 Welsh Grand National at Chepstow
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