Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the Flat turf meetings at Salisbury and Gowran Park for his three stats-based selections on Wednesday, August 16th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
SALISBURY 2.15
PERSICA (system – Richard Hannon 2yos, second start, beaten when fancied on debut)
The Richard Hannon-trained PERSICA was sent off as the 11-2 second favourite when making his debut at Leicester just 72 hours ago but could only finish a 15-length seventh of the eight runners. However, the son of New Bay had the worst of the draw in stall 8 and missed the break, whereas the winner/runner-up were up with the pace throughout from the two lowest stalls. It’s easy to forgive him that defeat and Hannon juveniles who were beaten on their debuts when fancied (defined as starting in the front two in the market) often hit the target at the second time of asking, landing 44 of their 153 starts (28.8% strike-rate) since the beginning of 2015 for a profit of £55.76 to a £1 level stake at SP.
SALISBURY 5.00
NIVELLE’S MAGIC (system – Hellvelyn, all-weather to turf switchers)
Progeny of the sire Hellvelyn tend to perform better on turf than on the all-weather and backing them when they switch from synthetics to grass would have found 23 winners from 192 bets (12%) for a profit of £113.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. NIVELLE’S MAGIC is a ten-race maiden but eight of those runs took place on the all-weather, including an eyecatching third from off the pace at Lingfield last time, and she could improve for running in a turf handicap for the first time.
GOWRAN PARK 5.10
SPANISH TENOR (system Gowran Park, 7f handicaps, low draw, yielding or faster going, top six in the betting)
It helps to be drawn low in 7f handicaps at Gowran Park when the ground is yielding or faster, with those drawn in stalls 1, 2 or 3, who started in the top six in the market, landing 33 of their 143 starts since the beginning of 2016 (23.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £55.63 to the usual £1 stake. Course and distance winner SPANISH TENOR, whose forcing style will be an asset, is likely to be near the head of the betting after his Galway Festival runner-up effort and can make all.
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