Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew had winners at 9-2 and 15-8 (10p Rule4) from three bets on Tuesday and has three stats-based picks on Wednesday, April 5th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
WINCANTON 2.15
OSCARS MOONSHINE (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, finished fourth or worse last time out)
Paul Nicholls does well when fitting one of his runners with cheekpieces for the first time and the value often lies with those who finished unplaced on their latest start. Since 2010, backing those who finished fourth or worse last time out would have found 31 winners from 134 bets (23.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £35.47 to a £1 level stake at SP. OSCARS MOONSHINE disappointed over the extended 3m trip here last time but the cut back to 2m5.5f and first-time headgear could help and he’s worth chancing at a nice price.
WOLVERHAMPTON 2.25
REVOLUTIONARY MAN (system – beaten from wide draw in 6f Kempton handicap last time out)
Since racing resumed after lockdown in June 2020, backing horses who were beaten in a 6f Kempton handicap on their latest start when drawn in stall 8 or higher would have found 51 winners from 409 bets for a small profit at SP. REVOLUTIONARY MAN fared best of those to come from off the pace when an 80-1 runner-up from stall 8 at Kempton last time and will be happier back up in trip at Wolverhampton, the scene of his last two wins.
WINCANTON 5.05
PASVOLSKY (system – Chris Gordon West Country handicap runners)
Chris Gordon has a good record with his runners in the West Country (Exeter, Newton Abbot, Taunton and Wincanton) especially in handicaps. Since 2014, he’s won with 21 of the 131 qualifiers (16%) for a profit of £73.16 to the usual £1 stake. PASVOLSKY contributed with a 6-1 bumper success at Wincanton a few years ago and could be worth chancing in this handicap chase on his return from a break.
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Related
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