Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Southwell (jumps) and Wolverhampton (all-weather) for three stats-based selections on Tuesday, November 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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SOUTHWELL 1.00
OUR JET (system – chase debutants, top weight in handicap company)
Chasers who go straight into handicap company under top weight for their first start over fences, rather than take the novice/beginners chase route, make good bets, especially in the early stages of the peak jumps season. Dan Skelton’s OUR JET, rated 122 by the official handicapper, disappointed in the EBF final at Sandown on his final start last term but won twice at Wetherby before that and might be able to make a winning start to his chase career under Rules. He ran third in his sole point-to-point outing and the two that beat him – Carrolls Cottage and Mr Incredible – have some useful form to their names and are now rated 130 and 140 respectively.
SOUTHWELL 3.05
JEN’S BOY (system – Malinas, Southwell jumps, 2m4f+)
Progeny of the sire Malinas have a useful record over the longer (2m4f+) jumps trips at Southwell, landing eight of their 36 starts for a profit of £26.15 to the usual £1 stake. JEN’S BOY, a narrow second at Hereford last time, can go one better.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.20
CAPPARIS (system – Richard Fahey, first-time cheekpieces, recent run)
Richard Fahey has scored with three of his last five runners, all here at Wolverhampton (11-2, 4-1 and 9-4), and five-race maiden CAPPARIS looks backable in this 8.6f handicap. The filly was unsuited by the step up to 1m2f when only sixth at Chelmsford last time and is best judged on her earlier three-length 33-1 seventh of 14 at Newcastle where she did third best of those to race up with the pace. The first-time cheekpieces could help and her trainer is 37 from 225 (16.4%) when using this headgear on horses who’d run within the past four weeks for a profit of £60.80.
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