Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Leicester, Tipperary and Lingfield for his three stats-based selections on Tuesday, May 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LEICESTER 3.00
TORFRIDA (system – Pam Sly, Leicester Flat runners, Class 5 or lower)
Pam Sly does well with her low-grade (Class 5 or below) Flat runners at Leicester, scoring with 12 of the 56 qualifiers for a hugged profit of £147.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.96). Shane Kelly has form figures of 144133 on the six he’s ridden (winners at 50-1 and 6-1) and TORFRIDA, who made all in a 6f maiden at Doncaster last time, will appreciate the step back up in distance and can follow up.
TIPPERARY 5.15
COLLAGE (system – Churchill, second-time out, top four on debut)
It’s rare for progeny of the sire Churchill to win on their racecourse debuts, especially on turf. Only five of the 124 qualifiers were successful (4% strike-rate) for a huge loss of £96.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.45). COLLAGE was sent off as the 4-1 favourite for an 11-runner maiden at Gowran Park in April and only went down by a head in second place to Snowcapped, who followed up in comfortable fashion in a fillies’ handicap at the Curragh. Churchill progeny who finished in the top four on their debuts are profitable to follow on their second career start and she can go one better this evening.
LINGFIELD 7.40
REVOLUTIONARY MAN (system – Robyn Brisland, very recent run)
Robyn Brisland has a 26 from 116 record (22.4% strike-rate) when bringing one of his runners back to the track within a week of its previous outing and backing them all would have returned a profit of £33.67 to the usual £1 stake. REVOLUTIONARY MAN is 0-10 on turf but this five-time all-weather winner only went down by a head at Yarmouth last week and has the best of the draw in stall 7 of 7.
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