Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Brighton, Southwell and Wetherby for his four stats-based selections on Tuesday, June 13th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
BRIGHTON 2.20
BATTLEOFBALTIMORE (system – Starspangledbanner, 2yo debut, turf)
Progeny of the sire Starspangledbanner tend to be precocious and backing them on their racecourse debuts (turf only) would have found 28 winners from 170 bets (16.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £57.61 to a £1 level stake at SP. So far this year they’ve recorded form figures of 221197011323 (4-12) and BATTLEOFBALTIMORE looks set to go well for the Dylan Cunha yard.
SOUTHWELL 3.30
INSPIRITED (system – Marco Botti, turf to Tapeta switchers)
Marco Botti has done extremely well with horses switching from turf to Tapeta, scoring with 65 of the 289 qualifiers (22.6%) for a profit of £116.17 to a £1 level stake at SP. INSPIRITED, a winner at Brighton on his final juvenile outing, ran with credit behind 2-9 favourite Concorde at Redcar on last month’s reappearance and makes his all-weather debut today. Both his sire and dam were unbeaten on synthetic surfaces and odds of around 16-1 could be on the generous side.
SOUTHWELL 4.00
BIG BEAR HUG (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+)
Flat progeny of the sire Belardo tend to improve from age three and when given a trip of at least one mile. Combining these two factors gives us 75 winners from 469 bets (16% strike-rate) for a profit of £95.80 to a £1 level stake at SP. BIG BEAR HUG contributed with an 11-4 victory at Leicester last month, his first success from 14 starts, and has performed with credit on both previous all-weather outings.
WETHERBY 6.10
ARIZONA DESERT (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Amo Racing-owned newcomers continue to run better than market expectations and backing them blind would have found 36 winners from 157 bets (22.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £44.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 25.81). Those trained by Alice Haynes are four from ten and she can strike with ARIZONA DESERT in this restricted maiden.
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