Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has three stats-based selections at Newmarket (the first day of the Craven meeting), Southwell and Gowran Park on Tuesday, April 18th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 2.25
VAFORTINO (system – New Bay handicappers, top-three finish last time out)
Progeny of the sire New Bay have a fine record in handicaps when arriving at the track on the back of a top-three effort, landing 65 of their 189 starts (34.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £117.82 to a £1 level stake at SP. VAFORTINO finished third at Kempton last time and won second time out on turf last year after a reappearance run on the all-weather.
SOUTHWELL 5.25
IRONOPOLIS (system – top four finish from the front on Newcastle (AW) round course last-time out)
It remains very difficult to win under forcing tactics on the Tapeta at Newcastle (distances of 1m2f or further) and IRONOPOLIS, a market drifter on his debut for Rebecca Menzies, weakened into a modest fourth after making the running in a 1m2f novice contest at Gosforth Park last time. Those who finish in the top four under such tactics make good bets next time, landing 61 of their 282 starts (21.6%) for a profit of £106.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. Ironpolis shapes as though the step up to 1m4f will suit and looks worth a punt.
GOWRAN PARK 5.45
TOOSO (system – Fast Company, soft or heavy going, Flat)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company are profitable to back blind when given soft or heavy going on the Flat, landing 120 of their 856 starts (14% strike-rate) for a profit of £61.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. TOOSO, well drawn in stall 3, is a 12-race maiden but finished best of the closers in second of 17 over course and distance last spring and might be able to make a winning reappearance/stable debut. GRISEO also qualifies as a bet for me on the Fast Company/mud angle and is worth a saver.
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