Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has four selections at Perth, Newmarket – day one of the three-day Cambridgeshire meeting – and Chelmsford on Thursday (September 22). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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PERTH 2.10
GOWEL ROAD (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies chase debutants in handicaps, fresh)
This century, Nigel Twiston-Davies is 31 from 118 with chase debutants, running in handicaps, who had been off the track for more than 150 days. Backing them all would have returned a profit of £55.30 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners, based on their prices, was less than 20). Top weight GOWEL ROAD looks an interesting recruit to fences and can defy a 190-day absence.
NEWMARKET 4.10
GLOBAL HEAT (system – Saeed Bin Suroor, 4yo+, handicaps)
Since the start of 2018 we could have bet every single Saeed Bin Suroor-trained handicapper aged four or older and made a good profit. He’s scored with 85 of the 395 qualifiers (21.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £64.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s a healthy profit of 16.5% on turnover but we could have boosted that to 39.4% (+£155.45) by taking the best price the evening before racing. The last three qualifiers all wo (22-1, 7-2 and 2-1) and GLOBAL HEAT can extend the sequence.
NEWMARKET 5.20
RECHERCHER (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time blinkers)
Since the beginning of 2016, Ralph Beckett has a 21 from 92 record with his first-time blinkered runners for a profit of £86.23 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 12.92). RECHERCHER has proved expensive to follow since May’s reappearance second at Goodwood, tasting defeat at odds of 7-2, 9-4f, 16-5, 13-8f and 5-2f but the headgear could make the difference here.
CHELMSFORD 7.45
RUMOURMONGER (system – Mick Appleby, first-time blinkers, fillies/mares)
RUMOURMONGER was a late mover from 40-1 into 22-1 on her debut for Mick Appleby here last week but completely blew the start and could never get beyond mid-division. The fitting of a hood and blinkers could help in that regard and it’s interesting to note that her trainer has won with four of his last eight fillies/mares to wear first-time blinkers, with the wins at 100-1, 16-1, 7-1 and 4-1. SWEET SUMMER also qualifies on this angle in the 6.45.
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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens
- Check out the latest horse racing results from across the UK.
- Today’s Kerry National tips and trends for Listowel race
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