Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the jumps meetings at Warwick, Hexham and Limerick for his three stats-based picks on Thursday, March 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
WARWICK 3.00
STELLAR STREAM (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, won in fast time on latest start)
Last-time-out speed stands up well in handicap hurdles over 3m or further, with those who scored in a quick time (earning a Proform speed figure of 67 or higher) following up in 125 of their 443 starts since 2012 (28.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £127.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Point-to-point winner STELLAR STREAM appreciated the step up to 3m1.5f when opening his account under Rules at Hereford last time and can follow up.
HEXHAM 4.30
TREVELYN’S CORN (system – Micky Hammond/Emma Smith-Chaston trainer/jockey combination)
Emma Smith-Chaston has a 38 from 220 record (17.3% strike-rate) when riding for Micky Hammond and backing those mounts blind would have yielded a profit of £75.35 to a £1 level stake at SP. TREVELYN’S CORN was runner-up at 9-1 here in Cheltenham week when Smith-Chaston was last on board and might be able to go one better.
LIMERICK 4.35
CHURCH LANE (system – Malinas, 2m4f+, good to soft or softer)
Progeny of the sire Malinas are 96 from 547 (17.4% strike-rate) when racing over 2m4f on good soft or softer going and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £50.31 to a £1 level stake at SP. Both qualifiers – Miah Grace and Broadway Boy – won yesterday and perhaps 16-1 poke CHURCH LANE can keep the ball rolling. He’s an eight-race maiden but placed at 66-1 at Tramore on his debut for Maurice Walsh last time.
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