Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Nottingham, Hamilton and Leicester for his four stats-based selections on Thursday, June 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NOTTINGHAM 2.25
IBIZA LOVE (system – stable switchers, Alice Haynes)
Alice Haynes does well at the first time of asking with horses she takes over from other yards, scoring with eight of the 61 qualifiers (13.1%) for a profit of £8.58 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s not the most earth-shattering strike-rate but 24 of the beaten horses also made the frame and an each-way bet on IBIZA LOVE could pay dividends. Thore Hammer Hansen rode five of the previous Alice Haynes ‘switchers), winning on the last three of them (9-1, 11-2 and 100-30).
NOTTINGHAM 3.35
ROGUE FOX (system – Kodiac, gelded since last run)
Progeny of the sire Kodiac have a good record on their first outing start after being gelded, landing 51 of their 353 starts (14.5% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £206.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. ROGUE FOX, who also wear blinkers for the first time, has been gelded since last autumn’s respectable debut fourth at Chelmsford and can get off the mark for in-form Tom Clover.
HAMILTON 6.00
SIR JOSEPH SWAN (system – Archie Watson, first run for the yard, ridden by Brodie Hampson)
Archie Watson does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially when they are ridden by his wife, jockey Brodie Hampson. Their full record reads 2111114632P (5-11) for a profit of £13.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. SIR JOSEPH SWAN is a potential improver on his first start since leaving Amanda Perrett and it looks significant that he makes the long trip to Hamilton.
LEICESTER 7.45
BUNGLE BAY (system – Leicester sprint handicaps, 8-11 runners, stall 1)
Low-drawn runners are usually favoured in sprints at Leicester, as their stalls line up with the faster ground down the centre of the track. Since the draw was reversed in 2011, backing stall 1 in Leicester sprint handicaps (5-6f) of between eight and 11 runners would have found 22 winners from 131 bets 16.8%) for a profit of £44.50 to the usual £1 stake. BUNGLE BAY is hardly prolific but went close at Windsor last time and should again be on the premises.
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