Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Worcester and the Flat turf meetings at Haydock and Newbury for his three stats-based picks on Thursday, June 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWBURY 3.25
BELIEVE YOU ME (system – Heather Main handicap debutants)
Heather Main has a good recent record with handicap first timers, scoring with eight of the 42 qualifiers since the beginning of 2019 for a profit of £48.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Seven of those eight winners came in Class 5 or 6 company and BELIEVE YOU ME, a solid 66-1 fifth of 11 over 7f here last month, looks very interesting now handicapping over an extra furlong.
HAYDOCK 6.10
IDLE ASSEMBLY (system – Night Of Thunder 2yos, turf, 0-2 previous runs)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder tend to be precocious and we’d have made a profit of £81.20 had be backed them all (turf only) on their first, second or third start thanks to 48 winners from 231 bets (20.8%) strike-rate. The last Night Of Thunder debutant that Brian Meehan ran was Isaac Shelby, who won a Newbury maiden on debut before landing the Group 3 Superlative Stakes second time out (he also won the Greenham on his debut at three). IDLE ASSEMBLY cost 110,000euros as a yearling and looks worth chancing at double-figure odds on his debut.
WORCESTER 6.20
THE BOOLA BOSS (system – Rebecca Curtis, first-time tongue-tie)
In the past ten years, Rebecca Curtis has a 15 from 58 record with her runners in a first-time tongue-tie and had we backed them all to £1 level stakes at SP we’d be £45.95 in front. In chases only, she’s eight from 22 for a profit of £25.36 and THE BOOLA BOSS, the mount of Harry Cobden, looks very interesting now returned to the course and distance of his latest victory. He was beaten by 38 lengths over hurdles at Ffos Las on most recent outing but that came in the back of an 11-month absence and was clearly needed.
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