Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the Flat meetings at Haydock, Newbury and Kempton (AW) for his three stats-based based selections on Thursday, July 6th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
HAYDOCK 2.40
BOLLIN MARGARET (system – Fountain Of Youth, turf, recent run)
Simply backing all progeny of the sire Fountain Of Youth on turf, who last raced between one and 28 days earlier, would have found 44 winners from 331 bets (13.3% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £284.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. BOLLIN MARGARET forcing style was no help at Doncaster last time where she could only finish fourth as the 11-8 favourite but Haydock is kinder to such tactics and she faces little in the way of competition for the lead. I’ve also bet ARCTIC FOX, who won this race last year.
NEWBURY 6.05
BOYFRIEND (system – Twilight Son, second-time out, beaten by 7L or less on debut)
It’s very rare for progeny of the sire Twilight Son to score on their debuts but those that show promise in defeat (defined as finishing within seven lengths of the winner) often make good bets at the next time of asking, landing 18 of their 73 starts (24.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £24.10 to the usual £1 stake. BOYFRIEND only went down by a neck in second place when 20-1 for last month’s debut at Windsor and can go one better this evening.
KEMPTON 7.35
KINGORI (system – Crisford yard, handicap debut)
Runners from the Crisford yard are profitable to back blind on their handicap debuts, landing 65 of their 258 starts (25.2% strike-rate) and leaving us £15.38 in the black. Had we only sided with the geldings we’d have won 26 of our 90 bets and made a profit of £26.68. KINGORI, a gelded son of Animal Kingdom, won two of his three starts last year and is worth a punt on his seasonal/handicap debut.
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Related
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